1. Boston Red Sox
Hitting: With no Manny Ramirez and a declining David Ortiz, the lineup certainly isn't as formidable as it was 2-3 years ago. Still, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia have developed into stars, and Jason Bay is a pretty good No. 6 hitter. Boston shouldn't expect much from Mike Lowell or Jason Varitek, but Jed Lowrie could surprise, and J.D. Drew will be productive when not hurt. Rocco Baldelli still has an uphill battle in front of him.
Pitching: A huge strength. Josh Beckett is my favorite to win the Cy Young, and Jon Lester is rock solid. Dice-K could go one of two ways – see his ERA skyrocket after a lucky 2008 when he led the league in walks. Or, he could improve his command and become ace material with his stuff. Brad Penny hasn't been any good in years, and that was in the NL. Still, John Smoltz will eventually be back, and Clay Buchholz could be the toughest guy to hit on the entire staff – he needs to get a legitimate chance in 2009, and the team better not let mediocrity like Tim Wakefield or Penny stand in the way.
2. New York Yankees (wild card)
Hitting: Alex Rodriguez is the obvious X-factor. Even if he returns in late April, how productive can he be at 85 percent? Healthy returns by Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada are important, as was the Mark Teixeira addition. Derek Jeter is in decline, but Robinson Cano should bounce back in a big way. Run scoring won't be a problem in New York.
Pitching: With CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Joba Chamberlain, the rotation does have some health risk. Still, it's a deep staff loaded with talent. Chien-Ming Wang is underrated, and Andy Pettitte pitched better than his cosmetic stats indicated last season. Middle relief has some question marks, but this staff is among the best in baseball.
3. Tampa Bay Rays
Hitting: The Rays are in no way a fluke, and they'd easily be the favorites to win the AL West and AL Central. Unfortunately, baseball's top-two teams just happen to play in their division. Matt Joyce and Pat Burrell were sneaky signings, and Carl Crawford looks poised to rebound from a poor 2008. B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria could both be first round picks in fantasy leagues next year.
Pitching: With James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza and eventually David Price, Tampa Bay has a tremendous 1-4. And that's before Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson enter the equation. The team's terrific defense is a big help as well. Grant Balfour is likely to go down with an arm injury, but he could also finish with the best K rate in baseball.
4. Baltimore Orioles
Hitting: Can Aubrey Huff repeat last year's performance? Do you realize Melvin Mora hit .376/.417/.656 after the All-Star break last season? Matt Wieters is the second coming of Jesus, and with an outfield comprised of Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Felix Pie with Cesar Izturis at shortstop, Baltimore's defense could be one of the best in the league.
Pitching: The defense will help, but this staff is pretty terrible. The Orioles will need to get a lot out of Koji Uehara and Jeremy Guthrie, because the rotation is not deep. However, there is plenty to like in their minor league system, so the future does have promise. I'd much rather Chris Ray than George Sherrill in a fantasy league.
5. Toronto Blue Jays
Hitting: Aaron Hill could bounce back, but it's time Alex Rios starts developing more power. Travis Snider is going to be good, but this lineup is weak. Adam Lind hit more groundballs (141) than fly balls (131) in 2008.
Pitching: What once looked like a potential dominant staff is now down to pretty much just Roy Halladay. David Purcey and Jesse Litsch are OK, but good luck pitching in this division. How Dustin McGowan eventually comes back from his arm injury will be huge for this franchise. It looks like B.J. Ryan's stuff isn't ever coming back.