Ryan Braun's intercostal strain has officially become a major concern. Considering it's the same exact injury that limited him to a .208/.304/.356 line in September last year, his latest setback can't be taken lightly. The fact it lingered after a full offseason of rest was worrisome in the first place. I just drafted him with the seventh pick in my main league and am already regretting it. I knew I should have went with Timmy.
It seems the popular thing right now is to call Matt Wieters overhyped. Well, allow me to let you in on a little secret, he's become so overrated, he's now officially underrated. Sure, he's looking at 1-2 months in the minors to open the season, but we are talking about quite possibly one of the five best prospects of the decade. He's the real deal, so feel free to reach.
I really don't know what to make of Javier Vazquez – entering last year I strongly recommended avoiding him. The feeling being he was coming off a tremendous year with strong peripherals, but the strong K rate has always been there and a big improvement in strand rate was largely to blame for the better ERA – something I didn't feel comfortable repeating. Well, he responded with another campaign with very good peripherals yet a 4.67 ERA (his strand rate dropped significantly). David Bush is similar, but Vazquez is the poster boy for "his ERA should have been better." Despite a 7.99 K/9 and a 3.3 K/BB ratio for his career, his ERA is a pedestrian 4.32 over 11 seasons. He's posted an ERA under 4.42 once over the past five years. The fact he struggles out of the stretch (opponents have hit 21 points higher against him with RISP than with the bases empty during his career) is obviously a problem, but it does also seem Vazquez has been unlucky. In fact, the difference between his FIP and ERA (-0.86) was the third highest in all of baseball last year. Moreover, Vazquez is now moving to the easier league with a move to Atlanta. He's an extreme fly ball pitcher, and according to park factors, last year U.S. Cellular Field was the second most homer-prone stadium in baseball, whereas Turner Field was in the middle of the pack. Bottom line, Vazquez is extremely durable, has struck out more than 180 batters in four straight seasons, should be a help in WHIP and could vie for the Cy Young with the move back to the NL. However, don't be surprised if you are throwing your arms up at the end of 2009 wondering why his ERA was so much higher than his peripherals suggest it should have been.
Do you realize the Tigers signed Dontrelle Willis to a three-year, $29 million contract last year when he was coming off a season in which he posted a 5.17 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 1.7 K:BB ratio while in the NL? Put a fork in him – his career is over. That signing was dumber than Drew Peterson's new fiancée, or the fact the Twins built a new stadium for $400 million and didn't make it a dome.
Two quick recommendations: The first is "I Love You, Man," and while not a true classic, I thought it was one of the funnier comedies that didn't involve Judd Apatow in quite some time. The second is a TV show called "Party Down." It won't be popular since it airs on Starz, and I can only vouch for one episode since it just started, but the series premiere was an A+.
If you're in an NL-only format (or a deep mixed league), David Freese is fast becoming a legitimate option. An early Achilles injury during spring stopped him from being the obvious favorite to replace Troy Glaus at third base for the Cards, but he's since recovered while Joe Mather has slumped badly. Freese has a .914 OPS throughout his career in the minors, including 26 homers over 464 at-bats in Triple-A last season. He's a deep sleeper.
I find it absolutely laughable listening to people discuss Curt Schilling's Hall of Fame credentials and bringing up wins as a reason why he shouldn't be in. Longevity obviously matters but have we honestly not moved past such an archaic method of evaluating pitchers? Listening to the Michael Kay show, who I generally like actually, he said: "Aren't wins what baseball is all about?" Umm, yes, but that's an extremely poor correlation to pitching performance, obviously. Bottom line, we need to stop this numerology when it comes to evaluating careers – and especially when it comes to such an insignificant statistic such as "wins." By the way, Schilling was one of the best postseason pitchers ever and had a 127+ ERA, so while I'm far from a study of the game and consider the guy a tool, he's a pretty much a slam dunk Hall of Famer.