Rich Harden has about as much upside as any fantasy player in baseball. By now, everyone knows the inherent injury risk – he's reached 150 innings in just one season during his six-year career. But this is someone who posted an 11.28 K/9 IP mark once he came over to the NL last season. Despite a high-walk rate, Harden is generally unhittable, and with the Cubs' offense supporting him, there's every reason to believe he can be a top-10 SP asset even if he tosses just 150 innings (factoring in an average replacement player). That said, there's one aspect getting overlooked in the Harden scenario – what if he is able to stay on the mound, but the results are diminished due to all that arm trouble? His velocity was way down at the end of last season, and while he remained effective, he did post a 14:12 K:BB ratio over 17 September innings. He's getting eased back into work this spring, but realize a long-lasting decrease in velocity could be especially troublesome since Harden has transformed himself into mainly a two-pitch (fastball/changeup) guy because of all the arm troubles. I'm not saying avoid at all costs, but it's also worth noting his dominant performance in a Cubs uniform last season was accompanied by a .229 BABIP and an .873 strand rate. While his ERA was 1.77, his xFIP was 3.64.
Speaking of Cubs starting pitchers, Sean Marshall is one of my favorite targets in 2009. Too often overlooked as an option in the rotation last season, he did post an 8.02 K/9 IP mark and enters this year firmly entrenched as Chicago's No. 5 starter. So far this spring, the lefty has recorded a 0.63 ERA with an 8:1 K:BB ratio over 14.1 innings.
With the Cubbies remaining on my mind, I question whether Derrek Lee's power will ever return. Over the last 104 games last season, he hit just seven homers. That's carried over into spring, when Lee has slugged a pathetic .214 over 28 at-bats. Obviously, the spring stats are too small of a sample size to write him off completely, but this is a worrisome trend. Lee isn't worth his price tag (his ADP is currently higher than Joey Votto's).
Clint Barmes isn't a bad endgame option at MI this year. In fewer than 400 ABs last season, he racked up 11 homers and 13 steals. Sure, he isn't a very good player in real life - .606 career OPS on the road – but the fact remains he plays half his games in Coors Field. Ian Stewart could spell him at times, but with Jeff Baker providing little competition this spring, Barmes is set to enter 2009 as the Rockies' clear starter at second. He's even more valuable in leagues with daily transactions, where you can play him exclusively at home.
Another solid late-round option is Gary Sheffield, whose current ADP sits at 245. He may be 40 years old and injury-prone, but he still managed 19 homers and nine steals over just 418 at-bats last season. Of course, that came with an ugly .225 BA, but that can at least partially be explained by a .237 BABIP. He seems to be over his shoulder problems, and the fact he's finally OK with staying at DH could lead to better health. Although it disappointed in 2008, Detroit's lineup should be potent.
A Tiger I'm less enthused about a bounce back is Justin Verlander. I certainly liked his career path entering last year, but his ugly 2008 was the result of an increased walk rate and a decreased K rate – not bad luck. Sure, every pitcher can be forgiven for a bad season, and I'm not writing Verlander off completely, but I worry his price tag will rise after glowing reviews that are completely misguided. For instance, "Detroit News" claimed Verlander "looked fabulous" during his start Tuesday, when he allowed just one run over six innings. Well, that also came with a 2:3 K:BB ratio, so "fabulous" wouldn't have been my description of the outing. Moreover, Verlander has posted a 7:12 K:BB ratio over 15.1 innings this spring, so I'd temper my expectations.