An interesting scenario came very close to happening Sunday with respect to the 4-point spread. Seattle was down 11 and driving. If they score the TD, they're definitely going four 2. So they'd either lose by 5 or lose by 3. Cover or not.
But what happens if they score the TD on the last play? Do they still get to kick the PAT? And if they do, does Holmgren go for 2? Either way, he's affecting millions of people. If he goes for 1, he's guaranteeing a push. If he goes for two, he's guaranteeing the billons of dollars wagered come down to that play.
I say you gotta go for two. There's nothing to lose, and the people who bet on you will love you forever.