There isn't anyone getting consistently overdrafted more than Javier Vazquez. I've always liked Vazquez's stuff, dating back to his days as an Expo. However, the fact remains 2007 was the first season he finished with an ERA under 4.42 in four years. He's always a help in WHIP, and the strikeouts are legit, but Vazquez is an extreme flyball pitcher who plays in one of the most homer-friendly ballparks in baseball. Last year, his groundball/flyball ratio actually decreased from the season before, when he posted a 4.84 ERA. The glaring difference? His strand rate jumped from .640 in 2006 to .720 last season. I wouldn't count on it happening again.
I view Jeff Francis similarly, as prospective fantasy owners are focusing way too much on last year's 17 wins and too little on the underlying peripherals when overdrafting the left-hander. Coors Field is still a very undesirable place to pitch, and 4.22 ERAs are rarely accompanied by 1.38 WHIPs. Expect him to finish this year with something resembling his second half numbers from 2006. He's not a top-60 fantasy starter in my eyes.
I'd like to apologize to Rocco Baldelli, my personal whipping boy ever since he killed numerous fantasy teams of mine over the past couple of years. There's a joke somewhere to be made regarding the fact his career is over due to "fatigue," but I've made enough at his expense. The guy's life may be in jeopardy for crying out loud. Farewell, Rocco Baldelli.
I really don't understand why catchers aren't more heavily targeted. There is a clear-cut top-4, and then a precipitous drop off. If you are playing in a 2-C league, there are some pretty awful options if you wait too long, whereas even the 80th outfielder can produce decent enough stats. This is the one clear position that needs to be addressed early based on scarcity.
I always preach not to draft based on last year's stats, but if anyone's 2007 is under the radar, it's Mark Ellis'. Here's a second baseman who basically finished with a line of .275-20-10-80-80 while missing more than 10 games. I doubt he'll do it again, but as one of the game's best defensive players, he's pretty valuable to the A's. Aaron Hill also had a very effective and under the radar season last year.
Conor Jackson is one of my favorite mid-to-late round targets. Slated to bat third in the Diamondbacks' lineup, Jackson has a very favorable home park and quietly hit .308/.371/.555 after the All-Star break last season. He doesn't have light-tower power, but eight homers over his final 130 at-bats in 2006 suggest it's developing. His 50:53 K:BB ratio last season also portends a future .310-.320 type hitter.
Shane Victorino has to be one of the first 25-30 outfielders taken in drafts. While most speedsters contribute very little in the power department, Victorino can chip in 15 bombs, and his remarkable 90 percent success rate (37-for-41) on the basepaths last year means plenty more running should be in his future. The only real difference I can find between Carl Crawford and him is about 25 points in batting average.
If Michael Cuddyer finds himself batting between Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Delmon Young, he's going to end up as a serious bargain in fantasy leagues. Part of last year's drop in slugging can be blamed on injury, and yet he still finished with respectable numbers despite missing 20 games. He's also 11-for-11 on stolen base attempts over the last two seasons, so he could probably swipe 15 bags if he wanted to.
Billy Butler is an excellent end-game pick, especially those who play in Yahoo leagues, as he's first base eligible. Butler's power is still developing, and he certainly needs to improve against right-handed pitching, but he more than held his own as a 21-year-old in the majors last season and could really break out in 2008. He's a legitimate .300 hitter and eventually all of those doubles are going to turn into homers.
I've developed an unhealthy man-crush on Lastings Milledge. It's simply impossible for me to draft this guy too high. In fact, I recently picked him in the 12th round of one league. I guess I have a soft spot for head cases, but this is a pretty unique talent with both legitimate power and speed. One should largely ignore spring stats, but I've stupidly been fixated by his line of .389/.476/.583 with five steals in 36 meaningless at-bats.