UNDERVALUED
Maurice-Jones Drew (ADP 18) – Speed, power, elusiveness, MJD brings the whole package to the table. Sure, he's not the starter by name, but he gets all of the goal line work and is a threat as a receiver. He also plays for a team that ran the football the third most times in the NFL last year. And in a division that features the Titans, Colts and Texans – three of the very worst run defenses in football – one can see why they pound the rock. He was given 13 carries inside the 10-yard line last season, and he converted seven of them into touchdowns, ranking second in the NFL with a 53.8 percent conversion rate. He averaged a league-best 5.7 YPC and led all players with at least 200 touches in yards per touch (6.5). In three of the first four weeks of last season, he received three carries or fewer. If you double his second half from last year, you get 1,718 yards and 20 touchdowns – and that was with Fred Taylor, one of the most fragile players of this generation, staying healthy. The Jaguars have a very good defense, and Jones-Drew is one Taylor injury away from becoming a top-three fantasy back. As is, I wouldn't fault someone for taking him fifth overall. If you draft Jones-Drew in the second round of your fantasy league, I suggest you hire a good lawyer, because you'll be looking at prison time for that robbery.
Marshawn Lynch (44) – Buffalo can talk committee until they are blue in the face, but they didn't draft Lynch in the first round to share carries with Anthony Thomas. No one truly gets all of the work, but it's safe to assume Lynch gets most of it in Buffalo. The fact that he can catch the ball is a big boon to his fantasy value. J.P. Losman got 7.5 YPA during the second half of the 2006 season, and Lee Evans is one of the most dangerous receivers in football and will command constant attention from opposing defenses. The Bills don't boast an elite line, but it's an emerging offensive unit – making Lynch a second round pick, not late fourth.
Jerious Norwood (53) – There's no way around it; Joey Harrington starting at quarterback hurts Norwood's fantasy value. That said, Warrick Dunn's preseason injury gives him a further leg up in a competition he was likely already winning, since Bobby Petrino's new power running game couldn't be a worse fit for the aging and declining Done, er, Dunn. Norwood isn't an ideal fit either, but he is explosive, and there's no way he's not the starter this season. Norwood might be the fastest running back in all of football, and he's clearly a superior option at the goal line as well. He averaged an NFL-best 8.7 YPC in the 4th quarter last season, also leading the league in yards per touch (6.62) among players with at least 100 touches. Drafting backs on losing teams is never ideal, but Norwood should be off the board by the middle of round three at the latest.
OVERVALUED
Edgerrin James (19) – Really? Anyone drafting James in the middle of the second round this year either was out of the country for the duration of the 2006 season or starred in "Memento." I'm all for buying low on bounce back candidates, but James averaged 2.8 YPC during the first eight games last year. Yes, he improved that number to 4.2 over the second half, and the new Arizona coaching regime plans to run more. But the line still isn't very good, and James is unlikely to get goal line carries. You're more likely to find me watching "Everybody Loves Raymond" reruns than drafting James this season. That show sucked.
Ahman Green (42) – Gary Kubiak's system has produced big numbers from running backs in the past, and Green showed up to camp in the proverbial "best shape of his career." Still, we are talking about a guy who is getting up there in age, is injury-prone and plays for quite possibly the worst team in football. Green averaged fewer than 4.0 YPC in seven of the final eight weeks last year. He's on the decline, so do yourself a favor and make better use of a fourth round pick.
Randy Moss (35) – A happy, motivated Moss catching passes from Tom Brady certainly does sound enticing. But all these muscle injuries with his legs are a major concern moving forward. It's not like Moss has ever gone over the middle, so if his speed isn't there, he's not much of a wide receiver away from the goal line. Clearly, there's upside here, but Moss is too risky to be an early third round pick. Receivers with lower ADPs: Javon Walker, Lee Evans, Marques Colston, Andre Johnson and Plaxico Burress – all of whom I'd draft ahead of Moss without second thought.