I'm reprising this exercise from last year because I think it's useful to identify potential breakouts and upside plays.

There are essentially four variables that determine a player's value: (1) Health; (2) Skills; (3) Team Context; and (4) Role. Of the four, (1) and (4) are most subject to dramatic change, so I've eliminated them for the purposes of these rankings.

In the first table, I assume every player were guaranteed 16 games. In the second, I've ranked the top-20 QB, RB, WR and TE irrespective of roles, i.e., assuming everyone had an equal number of basic opportunities. For QBs, that's 550 passing attempts, for RBs, that's 250 carries, for WRs and TEs, that's 130 targets:

Health-Neutral Rankings

A couple players see significant boosts: Sammy Watkins, Dez Bryant and Alshon Jeffery become first-round picks, and Jamaal Charles and Mark Ingram move to the top of the running back board. Arian Foster, who's likely to sign somewhere, also gets ranked. The quarterbacks and tight ends aren't affected as much, but Tyrod Taylor, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Tyler Eifert, Dwayne Allen and Jimmy Graham see small gains in the rankings

Let's take a look at the Opportunity-Neutral Ranks. These eliminate not only health (you can't have opportunities without it), but also the hard-to-predict whims of coaches and coordinators:

Opportunity-Neutral Rankings

These changes are more dramatic. Tyrod Taylor is my No. 4 QB because if he saw 550 attempts, he'd be a monster, given his rushing ability. Even RGIII clocks in at No. 14 because he'd rush for 700 yards, and he'd never see 550 attempts unless he were somewhat competent.

I nearly ranked David Johnson - whose biggest risk is sharing carries - ahead of Le'Veon Bell, but Bell is so good and also on a great offense, I held off. Charles and Ingram get bumped up again, but I also moved up Gio Bernard and Charles Sims. Should they see 250 caries, they'd be massive given all the receptions. I didn't add Danny Woodhead or Theo Riddick types because I don't think they'd ever see that kind of workload.

At WR, Michael Floyd, John Brown, Tyler Lockett, Doug Baldwin and Josh Gordon make appearances. The first four are efficient producers in great offenses that spread it around, while Gordon getting that many targets presumes a re-instatement, of course.

At tight end, Travis Kelce, Martellus Bennett, Graham, Jared Cook and Allen get bumped way up.

In real life, of course, the health and opportunity variables matter, and we don't want to ignore them entirely. But both are not only highly subject to change, they're also hard to predict, so it's worthwhile to focus more intently on skills and team context.