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Super Bowl 50 Observations

I watched the Super Bowl over at the TYT Sports studios - they're  part of the TYT Network that covers politics, and I didn't realize the viewing party was a live broadcast alternative to the Super Bowl. (I was sitting just out of the shot for most of it, so I'm barely in it.)

When there was no live action, I spent most of my time talking with people and getting into Twitter arguments on my cell phone, so I honestly don't remember a single commercial, and TYT was filming a recap right after the game ended, so I saw barely any of the post-game coverage. At halftime, I went out to the parking lot to shoot baskets with a bunch of guys, so I missed the halftime show too.

•  I did hear about Cam Newton walking out of the post-game presser. My opinion is whether a player talks to the media is the media's problem, so let them worry about it. As an NFL fan (and analyst), it means nothing to me.

Newton had a poor game, but he was in over his head. Not that Newton isn't a great quarterback who will probably win a Super Bowl at some point, but every quarterback facing an elite defense is toast. See Peyton Manning two years ago against the Seahawks, or even 2007 peak Tom Brady against a Giants defense that took him apart and allowed 14 points to the best offense of all time.

In fact, I will always bet on the elite defense in the Super Bowl - the market for whatever reason doesn't value them properly. For a more detailed exploration of this point, see here and here.

Any quarterback that took a snap in the NFL this year would have won the Super Bowl had he quarterbacked the Broncos in this game. That includes but is not limited to Matt Cassel, Brandon Weeden, Jimmy Clausen, Nick Foles, Case Keenum, Johnny Manziel (even if drunk*) and Austin Davis.

*too soon

I did catch Peyton Manning shilling for Budweiser in his post-game, likely career-ending moment of triumph. Stay classy, Peyton.

The Panthers final punt was ridiculous, but I don't fault them for the fourth and short punts earlier in the game. Against a team like the Patriots, it would have been terrible, but this was a unique match-up where both offenses had almost no chance to move the ball, so the Panthers knew they were getting the ball right back.

The Broncos and the under was the rare parlay that's so tightly correlated it's plus-EV vs. the house. Essentially, we knew Denver couldn't score, so the only way they could cover is if the under came in. When you have a tight correlation like that, getting 2.6:1 for what should be an even-money bet is like stealing. Unfortunately, I got too cute, and hedged with Panthers moneyline (hoping to middle and win both) and more or less broke even.

The under was such a lock it came in by 10 points despite a defensive TD, a punt return that set up a short field goal and a turnover at Carolina's two-yard line.

The Panthers should have thrown more on early downs, but foolishly stuck with the run and never changed their game plan when it didn't work.

Gary Kubiak surprised me by going for it on 4th-and-short inside the Panthers 10-yard line. The play resulted in a penalty, and the Broncos wound up with a field goal anyway, but he deserves credit for the call, especially after I ripped on his cowardly decisions all year.

Wade Phillips was a terrible head coach, but has always been an excellent defensive coordinator. It helps when you have Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware (and that secondary), but he deserves credit for running arguably a top-five all-time unit.

Taunting penalties need to be eliminated from the NFL. These are grown men, and barring physical contact, fines (after the player is afforded due process at a subsequent hearing) should suffice. Luckily, it didn't affect the outcome of the game, but the league is beyond stupid to risk that happening.