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Closer Rankings - February

With new homes for Aroldis Chapman, Ken Giles, and Drew Storen, it's time to revisit the 2016 closer rankings.

Tier 1

1. Kenley Jansen, LAD -- Jansen's 36.0 K-BB% is completely ridiculous (40.0% K%, 4.0 BB%), and he edges out Wade Davis atop my list with the Royals' offseason addition of Joakim Soria to their bullpen. Jansen also benefits from Aroldis Chapman's move to the Bronx.

2. Wade Davis, KC -- "1b." is also an appropriate listing. Greg Holland's torn UCL has opened the door for Ned Yost to use his best reliever as his closer. It may take a top-50 pick to get him in leagues that are aggressive with the top closers.

3.Aroldis Chapman, NYY -- Two questions: Will he be suspended for his domestic violence allegations (criminal charges are not required for MLB to administer discipline)? Could the Yankees still use Dellin Betances for situations in which a right-heavy part of the lineup is due up in the ninth inning?

Tier 2

4.Zach Britton, BAL -- The increased strikeout rate (31.2%, 10.8 K/9) has made me a believer. On top of that, the groundball rate continues to rank among the league's best.

5. Craig Kimbrel, BOS -- He is still missing a ton of bats (36.4% K%), and has plus-plus job security to boot, especially after the haul the Red Sox gave up to acquire him from San Diego.

6. David Robertson, CHW -- Skills-wise, his first season on the south side of Chicago was excellent (29.2% K-BB%). His strand rate (65.7% LOB%) was unusually high, so he may slide to the back of the top-10 in some drafts.

7. Jeurys Familia, NYM -- Familia broke hearts in October, but he hasn't shaken my confidence for 2016. Terry Collins always chooses the baked potato with his steak, and that is a good thing for Familia's hold on the ninth-inning role.

8. Ken Giles, HOU -- Giles had a 1.50 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 15 saves in 18 chances from July 1 while racking up 47 strikeouts against nine walks in 36 innings (.212 BAA). The ceiling here is that of a top-five closer. Moving to a better team should only increase his opportunities to close out games.

9. Cody Allen, CLE -- Allen's early struggles lingered longer than Mark Melancon's, but he turned it around in a big way in the second half. Only 10 qualified relievers had a better K-BB% than Allen's 25.9% mark.

Tier 3

10. Trevor Rosenthal, STL -- The Violet Beauregarde of closers, managed by the Sam Beauregarde of managers.

11. Mark Melancon, PIT -- Considering the velocity issues he was experiencing in April, it is amazing that his 2015 turned out to be profitable.

12. Huston Street, LAA -- (copy & paste Terry Collins steak joke from above after "Mike Scioscia").

Tier 4

13. Drew Storen, TOR -- This position assumes that Storen will be named the Jays' closer, and that Roberto Osuna will work in a setup role, or potentially stretch out as a starter. The former seems more likely than the latter, but the Jays' lack of clarity could become maddening if it lingers deep into March. Storen would move to the top of Tier 3 if he's officially named the team's closer in the coming weeks.

14. A.J. Ramos, MIA -- Thrived for the Marlins once Steve Cishek was out of the closer role. Ramos' peripherals already compare favorably to Trevor Rosenthal's. Carter Capps is waiting in the wings if he falters, and could retain the ninth-inning job if given the opportunity.

15. Jonathan Papelbon, WAS -- Someone should scream in his face that he had THE LOWEST STRIKEOUT RATE OF HIS CAREER IN 2015 (21.5% K%). This ranking assumes that Nationals GM Mike Rizzo does not hire Larry the Cable guy to slingshot Pap into the sun during a Prilosec commercial. The decision to trade Drew Storen to Toronto should afford Papelbon another year as a quality ninth-inning option.

16. Jake McGee, COL -- The Rockies were previously looking at Jason Motte as their closer. While Colorado may have given up too much (Corey Dickerson), they now have an elite arm to finish games. McGee's career 30.8% K%, 6.9% BB%, and .200 BAA seem to be overlooked. Remember, Huston Street and Brian Fuentes have been valuable assets while pitching of their games in Colorado and closing out games for the Rockies in the past, and McGee is a better talent than both of them.

17. Glen Perkins, MIN -- The Twins have been very loyal to Perkins as their ninth-inning option of choice. A 2016 team option brings the final year of the team-friendly extension he signed back in 2012.

18. Francisco Rodriguez, DET -- His margin for error on any given pitch is smaller than most, but he's still getting it done. K-Rod fanned a higher percentage of his batters faced (28.7% K%) than Jeurys Familia (27.9%), Roberto Osuna (27.7%), and Huston Street (22.4%) in 2015. Comerica Park should help him avoid a major regression in HR/9 after he showed a significant improvement last season. Also, the 2014 spike in home runs was fueled by a ridiculous 23.3% HR/FB rate. (He's been in the 12.3-15.2% range otherwise between 2012-2015.)

19. Hector Rondon, CHC -- Does Joe Maddon like Rondon enough to stick with him all season?

Tier 5

20. Shawn Tolleson, TEX -- Occasional issues with the long ball need to become less frequent to increase his job security in 2016. Otherwise, there is plenty to like here. Meanwhile, shares of Keone Kela are simmering on the back burner.

21. Santiago Casilla, SFG -- Casilla's 2.79 ERA beat his FIP (3.63) by a decent margin, while his strikeout rate spiked (career-high 25.4%) and his walk rate returned to a level (9.4%) close to his career mark (10.2%). Also...he's 35 years old!

22. Brad Boxberger, TAM -- Which guy is he -- the 2014 version (42.1% K%, 8.1 BB%, .152 BAA) or the 2015 version (27.3% K%, 11.8% K%, .228)? Also, his name would be more unusual if it were Brad Bagsausage. His hold on the ninth-inning role seems more stable with Jake McGee plying his trade in Colorado now.

23. Arodys Vizcaino, ATL -- It feels as though we have been waiting on Vizcaino forever thanks to the two seasons he lost following Tommy John surgery earlier in his career. If he can chip away at his walk rate, Vizcaino could become an above-average asset in all three reliever categories. Jason Grilli could complicate matters if he's healthy to begin the season.

24. Sean Doolittle, OAK -- I hope he's healthy again in 2016.  If he's showing typical velocity in spring training, the interest will only increase. Doolittle is not expected to face any limitations this spring.

25. Brad Ziegler, ARI -- No closer of the 30 you are reading about in this blog post had a lower strikeout rate than Ziegler (13.7%) last season.

26. Steve Cishek, SEA -- When the Cardinals failed to fix Cishek in the second half of last season (13.1% BB%), my interest in targeting him for a rebound in 2016 fell considerably.

Tier 6

27. Will Smith, MIL -- Smith actually improved against right-handed hitters in 2015, but he posted a reverse platoon split. If he puts the best of his 2014 and 2015 splits together, he could easily be the guy to win the job and keep it. With confirmation of the role, Smith moves ahead of Zieger and Cishek, and perhaps a few more. Other names to consider (in current order): Jeremy Jeffress, Corey Knebel, Tyler Thornburg, Michael Blazek, and David Goforth.

28. David Hernandez, PHI -- The Phillies are holding an open competition for the closer role this spring, but Hernandez's velocity approached pre-surgery levels in his final season with Arizona. His 2012 numbers (2.50 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 98:22 K:BB in 68.1 IP) may be an outlier, but he's a better lottery ticket than Fernando Rodney and whoever the Reds anoint as their closer.

29. Fernando Rodney, SD -- It's a shame that the Padres spent resources this way, especially since Kevin Quackenbush is a better option than Rodney.

30. Somebody, CIN -- J.J. Hoover? No thanks. Unless the Reds convert one of their top pitching prospects to a relief role (Robert Stephenson?), this job will likely be a revolving door all year.

Have a sleeper that you like for saves in Cincinnati? Let me know on Twitter @DerekVanRiper.