FanDuel NBA: Saturday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Saturday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

FanDuel will exclude the early Nuggets-Knicks matchup and focus on the remaining six games for their main slate Saturday.

SLATE OVERVIEW

BKN (-3) vs. CHI O/U: 220

MIL (-5) vs. MIA O/U: 216

DAL (-5) vs. MEM O/U: 216.5

GSW (-9.5) vs. SAS O/U: 219.5

LAC (-1.5) @ SAC O/U: 215

BOS (-1) @ POR OU: 217

INJURIES

CHI  Alex Caruso (hamstring) - OUT

The Bulls are snakebit with many ongoing injuries, and Caruso's is the most recent. Pivoting to the starters is preferable, as there isn't a pivot worth considering currently.

MIA Jimmy Butler (back) - OUT

MIA Bam Adebayo (thumb) - OUT

Barring any late-breaking news, Butler should be out today as previously announced. Adebayo is out for the foreseeable future, so Dewayne Dedmon ($5,800) and P.J. Tucker ($4,300) will see significant bumps in production moving forward.

MIL Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) - DOUBTFUL

Giannis is on track to miss again today. Pat Connaughton ($5,400) started in the last game but only managed 13 FP in the contest.  A view at the gameflow suggests sticking with Bobby Portis ($6,400) and adding exposure to All-Star starter Khris Middleton ($7,400). There's also a chance that  DeMarcus Cousins ($4,800) could make a minor impact.

MEM Kyle Anderson (back) - OUT

MEM Brandon Clarke (knee) - QUESTIONABLE

During Memphis' historic beatdown of the Thunder, the Grizzlies cleared the bench, and many new faces provided huge stat lines. Santi Aldama ($3,700) played almost 30 minutes and was impressive throughout. The addition of Clarke to the list also warrants a look at Xavier Tillman ($4,300).

DAL Kristaps Porzingis (knee)  - QUESTIONABLE

Porzingis was out on Friday, and he may miss again on the tail end of the back-to-back. Maxi Kleber ($4,700) should be targeted in this scenario.

SAS Devin Vassell (thigh) - DOUBTFUL

Expect Thaddeus Young ($4,000) to have a more significant impact with Vassell sidelined for another game.

LAC Paul George (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE

Reports indicate that he'll play Saturday but look to Marcus Morris ($4,300) as the primary beneficiary in the event of an absence.

SAC Harrison Barnes (foot) - DOUBTFUL

It looks like Barnes is out again. Terence Davis ($5,500) and Davion Mitchell ($4,500) have been excellent in picking up the slack with Barnes sidelined.

POR Damian Lillard (abdomen) - OUT

POR Anfernee Simons (ankle) - OUT

CJ McCollum ($8,200) is an obvious add with a short-handed backcourt. It appears that Dennis Smith ($4,400) will be the prime beneficiary during Lillard's extended absence, at least until Simons returns.

ELITE PLAYERS

We want to get Paul George ($9,100) involved if he plays. Beyond him, my favorite elite is probably Luka Doncic ($10,500), as his Mavericks are a slight favorite against the Grizzlies. I'm also fine with Stephen Curry ($10,700) in a favorable game against the Spurs. While viable, James Harden and Kevin Durant will be primarily faded due to their inflated cost. While I think they will perform well, I can upgrade my lineups by bypassing their lofty salaries. If I had to pick one, it would be Durant ($10,800), who put up a 38/11 line against the Bulls in their last matchup.

Also consider: Dejounte Murray, SAS ($9,800) @ GSW

EXPECTED CHALK AND CORE TARGETS

DeMar DeRozan ($8,600), Zach LaVine ($8,000) and Lonzo Ball ($6,500), CHI @ BKN

I'm a proponent of stacking the Bulls tonight against the Nets in what should be the highest-scoring matchup on the slate. Their last meeting was a 23-point blowout in Brooklyn's favor, but the Bulls are running hot after rebounding from terrible losses against the Pacers and the Rockets. The team has had a rest day in New York, and all three of these players had superlative lines against the Knicks on Thursday. I expect a much better result for the Bulls this time around.

De'Aaron Fox, SAC ($7,800) vs. LAC

I don't have complete confidence in Fox yet, but his recent pops in production make his upside appealing at below 8k. The two teams just played each other, and Fox had one of his better games of the month with a 23-point, five-assist line that also included three steals. Paul George's absence may have contributed to a better game from Fox, but the recent metric is enough to give Fox a good bit of exposure in the rematch.

Jrue Holiday, MIL ($7,900) vs. MIA

We already mentioned Middleton's obvious value in Giannis' absence, but Holiday is another vital piece of the puzzle when their All-Star is absent.  He popped for 47 FP with Antetokounmpo out, executing a 26/8/6 line despite a low-scoring affair against the Raptors. The heat will be without Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, so I expect Holiday and Middleton to have another good day.

Jaren Jackson, MEM ($7,200) @ DAL

I endorsed Jackson for the historic blowout of the Thunder, and he paid off in spades with 42 FP. The total could have been higher if Memphis hadn't emptied their bench. Now is the crucial moment for Jackson to assume the leadership role many have expected this season. Morant's extended absence puts a lot of pressure on the rest of the team, but they have all the crucial pieces to survive his loss, especially inside where Jackson and Steven Adams are making Memphis a force to be reckoned with under the basket. Jackson can also get it done from anywhere, as he demonstrated with six three-pointers in the victory over the Thunder. 

Kyle Lowry, MIA ($6,600) @ MIA

Nights like tonight are why Miami paid Lowry the big bucks to come south for the winter. I don't doubt Tyler Herro's ($7,300) solid contribution with Butler out, but this is the perfect scenario for Lowry to pop, as he did so many times in Toronto whenever Fred VanVleet was off the floor. The veteran exploded for 44 FP against Indiana Friday, which leads to my one concern about him. His results in back-to-backs haven't been great, and he's sat out one of them this season.  Still, with Miami's absences, his services will be needed again as they were against the Pacers.

VALUE PLAYS

If you skimmed over the injury section, now is the time to go back and identify the low-priced values and potential late-swap targets to cover as injury news breaks throughout the day.

Dillon Brooks, MEM ($6,000) @ DAL

In the wake of Brooks' recent injury, it was smart to limit him against the Thunder in a game where his services were unnecessary. He should get back to his regular production tonight, and if he sees more than 30 minutes, he should have no problem meeting or beating value at this appealing salary point.

Buddy Hield, SAC ($5,500) vs. LAC

The slashing sharpshooter only played 22 minutes in the last game against the Clippers, but I expect a flipped script in this rematch from earlier in the week. His anemic production looks like an outlier event if you look at his recent production, where he's beaten value at this salary in six of his last 10 games. His previous two stat lines make this a variance play, but he's worth a shot in large-field tournaments.

Norman Powell, POR ($5,200) vs. BOS

If Powell can get past his quad injury, he will be an extremely valuable piece of Portland's offense while dealing with Damian Lillard's absence. With a day off to rest, Powell may see an increase in his minutes against the Celtics, but even 25 minutes on the floor could be enough to match value at this salary.

Also consider: Patty Mills, BKN ($4,900) vs. CHI, Gabe Vincent, MIA ($4,500) @ MIL

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only NBA Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire NBA fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Edgerton
Jeff has provided sports content for numerous sports outlets and has played fantasy sports since scores had to be tabulated via newspaper. He started working with RotoWire in 2017. Originally from South Carolina, he's a lifelong Clemson fan now enjoying the sun in Los Angeles.
DraftKings Sportsbook: Thursday NBA Picks
DraftKings Sportsbook: Thursday NBA Picks
NBA Mailbag: Trade Questions Extravaganza
NBA Mailbag: Trade Questions Extravaganza
Around the Association: Elite Bigs Shine, Trae Goes Off, Westbrook Gets Bench And More From A 13-Game Slate
Around the Association: Elite Bigs Shine, Trae Goes Off, Westbrook Gets Bench And More From A 13-Game Slate
FanDuel NBA: Thursday Value Plays
FanDuel NBA: Thursday Value Plays
Yahoo DFS Basketball: Thursday Picks
Yahoo DFS Basketball: Thursday Picks
DraftKings NBA: Thursday Cheat Sheet
DraftKings NBA: Thursday Cheat Sheet