This article is part of our NBA Draft Kit series.
We're less than 10 days away from Opening Night, so let's hustle up and answer One Big Question for each team in the Southwest Division.
Dallas Mavericks
Outside of trading Josh Richardson, not much has changed with the Mavs, which means they are in the same situation as last year: hoping their one-star team turns into a two-star team with the reemergence of Kristaps Porzingis.
How overrated is Kristaps Porzingis?
My answer is "somewhat, but the hate might be getting too strong". But highly qualified ESPN expert Andre Snellings disagrees.
I'm a tad more optimistic. Over the past three seasons, The Unicorn has averaged 49 games played. That's the real problem. But the per-game stats are still tempting. His three-year per-game averages are 21.1 points, 8.3 boards, 1.9 blocks, 2.2 triples with 44.7% shooting and 80.6% from the line. In fact, he shot a career-high 47.6% from the field and a career-best 85.5% from the charity stripe last year. That's the good news. The bad news is his blocks are on a three-year decline (1.3 per game last year), as is his scoring (20.1 last year). And he played a career-low 43 games last year.
The positive slant is Porzingis is a great play for best ball leagues. The realistic view is having a center that only plays in 65% of games will drive you nuts. RW projects 65 games played for KP, which leads to a rank of 42nd for 8-category head-to-head games and
We're less than 10 days away from Opening Night, so let's hustle up and answer One Big Question for each team in the Southwest Division.
Dallas Mavericks
Outside of trading Josh Richardson, not much has changed with the Mavs, which means they are in the same situation as last year: hoping their one-star team turns into a two-star team with the reemergence of Kristaps Porzingis.
How overrated is Kristaps Porzingis?
My answer is "somewhat, but the hate might be getting too strong". But highly qualified ESPN expert Andre Snellings disagrees.
I'm a tad more optimistic. Over the past three seasons, The Unicorn has averaged 49 games played. That's the real problem. But the per-game stats are still tempting. His three-year per-game averages are 21.1 points, 8.3 boards, 1.9 blocks, 2.2 triples with 44.7% shooting and 80.6% from the line. In fact, he shot a career-high 47.6% from the field and a career-best 85.5% from the charity stripe last year. That's the good news. The bad news is his blocks are on a three-year decline (1.3 per game last year), as is his scoring (20.1 last year). And he played a career-low 43 games last year.
The positive slant is Porzingis is a great play for best ball leagues. The realistic view is having a center that only plays in 65% of games will drive you nuts. RW projects 65 games played for KP, which leads to a rank of 42nd for 8-category head-to-head games and 37th in 9-category rotisserie leagues. At 26 years of age, there's time for Porzingis to reverse the "always hurt" curse, but we're running out of patience. In the same fourth round, I'm probably taking the safer Clint Capela and banking on the boards and blocks.
Houston Rockets
The Rockets are finally in full rebuild mode, which means lots of minutes for the youngsters. While everyone is fascinated with rookie Jalen Green…
What can we expect from Kevin Porter at point guard?
When Houston was in complete tank mode, Porter was on fire. From late March to late April, the guard cranked out 15.8 points, 6.1 dimes, 4.4 boards and 1.9 three-pointers over 32.8 minutes per game. The efficiency wasn't great (42.2% from the field, 3.6 TOVs per game), but somebody had to run the offense with Christian Wood out.
Now Porter enters his third season on a Rockets team that added rookie Green at shooting guard and Daniel Theis at power forward, and rookie Alperen Sengun at back-up center. Houston's depth still is an issue, but they've improved over last season. Green will probably be a crazy gunner, shooting for ROY honors. So Porter might see a decrease in last year's 14.1 FGAs a game. That will probably aid his field goal percentage but hurt his scoring. A boost in efficiency would be a welcome sight.
RW has Porter projected at 93rd for 8-category leagues. His current average ADP is 87. So if you are hungry for a later-round point guard (who isn't?), Porter is a legitimate option with plenty of upside heading into his age-21 season. He'll definitely play 30-plus minutes all season.
Memphis Grizzlies
Replacing Jonas Valanciunas with Stephen Adams was an interesting move. (There were also lots of picks swapped and Eric Bledsoe was dumped). Could that exchange be a precursor for their star power forward to finally have a monster season?
Is Jaren Jackson Jr. finally ready to have a near All-Star season?
With an average ADP of 67.3, fans seem to be saying "maybe, but probably not". Jackson played in only 11 regular-season games last year, posting a modest 14.4 points, 5.6 boards and 1.6 blocks per contest, but shot an ugly 42.4 percent from the field. Those numbers do not warrant a 67 ADP, so clearly the fantasy community sees upside for the 22-year-old. He's due.
Jackson is a restricted free agent at the end of the season, so he should be plenty motivated. The low rebounds, despite his 6-foot-11 frame, are a concern. Last year's 5.6 rebounds per game are actually a career-high (over three seasons). Jackson's field goal percentage is also on a three-year slide. At the same time, fellow young power forward prospect Brandon Clarke has been a disappointment.
I suspect Memphis wants Jackson to play closer to the basket. That would certainly help with his field goal percentage and rebounding. Adams will probably see less than the 28.3 minutes per game Valanciunas executed last year, leaving more time for Jackson at the five. JJJ already qualifies as a center on Yahoo.
There is plenty of upside for Jackson on a Memphis team ready to make big changes. ADP-wise, Jackson has the same average as centers Valanciunas and Richaun Holmes. I'm down with grabbing JJJ ahead of both of them, though RWs projected rank of 41 feels a bit too high.
New Orleans Pelicans
Of course, everyone is focused on New Orleans' dynamic forwards, Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Williamson's high-teens ADP seems to ignore his free-throw shooting and lack of threes. Ingram in the late 30s could be a steal considering his all-around game, though I'd like to see more defensive stats. Still, the real value might be in the Pelicans' new backcourt…
Who should we target in their new backcourt: Devonte' Graham or Nickeil Alexander-Walker?
Fans will definitely overlook both guards come draft day. Graham's average ADP is around 100. NAW is close by at 110. Both guards could see 30 minutes per game, especially Graham.
Somehow Graham is supposed to make Pelicans fans forget Lonzo Ball. That won't be easy, but he is a dynamic scorer who dished 7.5 assists per game in 2019-20. I expect excellent stats across the board for Graham, with one notable exception: field goal percentage. In three seasons, the 26-year-old has a career FG% of 38.4%. Ouch. Much of that is due to jacking 8.3 triples per game. With Ingram and Williamson on the roster, he'd be wise to defer to his star forwards and cut back on low-efficiency shots. But keep this in mind, how many picks at 100 can produce 16 points, six assists, one steal and three triples per game? Those numbers are all worse or in line (steals) with what Graham produced in 2019-20 with Charlotte.
Alexander-Walker is more of an unknown. He's only started 14 games over this two-year career. The 23-year-old made nice strides from his rookie to sophomore season. RW projects his growth to continue this season, with expected stats of 15.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.2 steals over what would be a career-high of 29.3 minutes per game.
Both have sleeper value. I think Graham, based on past performance, has the higher ceiling. Graham's four-year, $47 million contract tells me New Orleans will give him every opportunity to succeed. Josh Hart and Kira Lewis seem like more of a threat to NAW's minutes than Tomas Satoransky is to Graham at the point.
San Antonio Spurs
There are no more superstars in San Antonio. The departures of LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan have left the Spurs with a starting five that can walk through a busy city and not be recognized by fans.
Who will lead this team in scoring?
RW is projecting points per game of 18.5 for Dejounte Murray, 16.6 for Keldon Johnson, 16.2 for Derrick White and 15.1 for Doug McDermott. I dare you to find a team with a more confusing scoring hierarchy. With no alpha dog, things might get very confusing at the end of games for San Antonio.
But I digress. While Murray is closest the Spurs have to an established star, he's better known for his tight defense and rebounding from the guard spot. Last year Murray played 31.9 minutes per game, but only took 14.5 shots per game. RW projects 16.4 shots per game this year, but I think that goes against his nature.
I'm more intrigued by the upside of Keldon Johnson. The 22-year-old looked much more offensively aggressive than Murray last year, despite taking fewer shots. Johnson loves the authoritative drive to the bucket. Johnson developing a few mid-range scoring options seems more realistic than Murray turning into a star. Johnson's average ADP sits in the low 90s. RW ranks the forward at 79th this season for 8-category leagues. The value is in Johnson.
White and McDermott are both fine stopgap, fantasy bench options.
That's it for our look at the SOUTHWEST. Here are the "One Big Question" articles for the other divisions:
