One Question, Every Team: Central Division

The 2021 NBA offseason keeps moving forward at a breakneck pace. Preseason has kicked in! It's time to answer One Big Question for each team in the Central Division.

Chicago Bulls

Those were some big moves by Bulls management. On paper, adding Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan looks awesome. But will Chicago's Big 3 play well together?  In other words…

Which Chicago star, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic or DeMar DeRozan, will see their fantasy value decline the most in 2021-22?

Based on per-game fantasy point production last season, Vucevic ranked 12th, LaVine ranked 25th and DeRozan was 35th. Having a pass-first point guard in Ball probably aids the value of each of them. Ball will be a great fit. But can they really have LaVine, Vucevic and DeRozan on the floor at the same time? All three stars are used to having the ball in their hands. All three come from offensive systems designed with each of them as the top option. I can't see how Billy Donovan is going to keep all three happy. Presumably, pleasing LaVine is Donovan's top priority, since LaVine becomes a free agent next summer.

So let's focus on DeRozan and Vucevic. I bet you didn't know DeRozan averaged a career-high 6.9 assists per game last year. The Spurs ran everything through DeRozan, but with Ball and LaVine in the backcourt, Deebo's playmaking responsibilities will be greatly reduced. No one on this roster passes better than Ball – it would be criminal for another Bull to lead the team in dimes. Plus, LaVine last season posted 4.9 assists per game, too. So expect a steep decline in DeRozan's assist totals. And presumably, his scoring will go down.

Vucevic won't see nearly as many plays run through him in the post as he did in Orlando. In 26 games with Chicago last year, his points per contest went from 24.5 with the Magic to 21.5 with the Bulls. And that's before DeRozan and his 21.6 points per game arrived. On the positive, the Bulls lack any other legitimate big man at either the four or the five, so it's not crazy to think Vucevic could lead the league in rebounds (he finished fifth last year with 11.7 per game). Tony Bradley fans, both of you, feel free to yell at me.

Vooch is also a year younger than DeRozan. I think DeRozan will have the steepest decline in 2021-22. DeRozan's upper-40's ADP seems about right. Vooch in the late teens is too optimistic.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Well, at least the Cavs were active this offseason. They added Lauri Markkanen, Ricky Rubio and rookie Evan Mobley and also re-signed Jarrett Allen while still stuck with Kevin Love. But things sure seem crowded in the paint.

Which Cleveland Big is the one to target?

For starters, avoid Kevin Love like the plague. That's easy. Next, I'm going to let others draft Mobley. The rookie has tremendous long-term upside, but he still needs to fill out his 20-year-old, 7-foot frame. Seven footers should weigh more than 215 pounds (Hell, I'm 6-2 and weigh 215). Ask Aleksej Pokusevski how "fun" it is to get beat up by legit NBA big men.

The Cavs just re-signed Jarrett Allen to a five-year, $100 million deal. As Adam Schefter always says, "follow the money". The 23-year-old Allen is 6-11 and 248. Now that's an NBA body. His 10.0 rebounds per game last year ranked 13th in the Association, as did his 1.4 blocks per contest. Those rankings make me feel good about his low 70s ADP.  

But what about Markkanen, you say? My bet is by mid-January, the Cavs realize they should be developing Mobley, not revitalizing the seven-foot Fin. Markkanen will provide some much-needed depth, especially when Love inevitably gets injured. Hopefully for Cleveland, The Finnisher can build some second-unit chemistry with Rubio. Markkanen also has a knack for getting injured (he's averaged 55 games per season), so even if he does turn things around, he'll inevitably join Love at some point in the trainer's room.

Detroit Pistons

The Motor City rebuild is in full effect. They have youthful, up-and-coming talent at almost every position. So…

Who is the better sleeper on this Pistons' roster?

Maybe that question is just a semi-smart way to say that there is lots of fantasy value in Detroit. Saddiq Bey (ADP ~108) is ready to build on the 14.0 points, 5.1 boards, 0.9 steals and 2.8 treys he posted over his last 46 games. Isaiah Stewart ("Beef Stew", ADP high 80s) could be a Ben Wallace-type stocks machine at the five. Cade Cunningham is the only rookie worth a Top-60 pick. And as my colleague Shannon McKeown points out, people are giving up way too early on 20-year-old Killian Hayes (ADP 146). He'll certainly improve on his shot-making skills as a sophomore, especially with Cunningham occasionally setting him up for easy jumpers.

Of the group, I'm probably most intrigued by Bey's low ADP and high upside. Bey is only 22-two-years old and will receive north of 30 minutes per game. He'll certainly improve on his rookie season's 40.4% field goal rate. And I'm sure Dwayne Casey will force him to play more aggressive defense. Sophomores are always underrated.

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers are facing bad medical news for both Caris LeVert and T.J. Warren, which makes me wonder…

Why can't Domantas Sabonis improve on his stellar 2020-21 season?

Why is Sabonis perpetually undervalued? Is it his history of playing in small markets? Last year, Sabonis ranked 10th in per-game fantasy points. He posted 20.3 points, 12.0 rebounds, 6.7 assists, 1.2 steals and 0.5 blocks per game -- pretty darn useful. And he qualifies at center in most formats. Nothing meaningful has changed on the Pacers' roster, making me believe the 25-year-old will deliver the same or even better numbers. So why is his ADP in the high teens? The Pacers are saying nice things about LeVert's back injury, but a "stress fracture" does NOT sound like a minor setback. Who knows when he can really play well again. And TJ Warren is still "out indefinitely" with his foot injury. With those two out, Indiana will continue to rely on Sabonis' scoring and passing. In fact, he's young enough to continue his five-year trend of improvement.

Milwaukee Bucks

Well, that was a thrilling championship. While I work from home out east, RotoWire HQ is in Madison, Wisconsin and filled with many banner-worthy Bucks fans. As a Nets hater and a fan of stars sticking with their original team, I also enjoyed Milwaukee's title run.

Should we be worried about Giannis Antetokounmpo's knee injury?

Last week the Finals MVP admitted he was still feeling the effects of the knee injury he suffered in the 2021 playoffs. He's currently going through light practices but missed last Tuesday's pre-season game. Does Giannis need pre-season practice?  Probably not.  Do you want your first-round fantasy pick to be healthy?  Heck yes. Having just won a trophy, there seems little need to force Antetokounmpo back to immediate monster minutes.

In the long run, the Bucks would be wise to decrease the 33.0 minutes per game Giannis played last season. Unfortunately, they didn't do much to improve their depth. It's hard to picture them giving meaningful minutes to newly acquired Semi Ojeleye, who signed a meager one-year, $1.8 million contract.

The two-time MVP winner is probably facing another year of huge minutes. His knee looked pretty good in the Finals. Of bigger concern is the Greek Freak's free-throw shooting. He's still a Top-6 pick for me, with much depending on league format.

That's it for our look at the Central.  Click here for our "One Question, Each Team" article for the Atlantic Division.