One Question, Every Team: Atlantic Division

Who's ready for normal? Hopefully, in 2021-22, each NBA team will get to experience a standard, 82-game slate after two messy, pandemic-ridden seasons, which would mean more weeks of difficult fantasy basketball decisions.

Many of those decisions need to be made by fantasy managers before their upcoming drafts and auctions. With my One Question series, I'll look to clear up each team's biggest question heading into the new season. We'll attack these issues one division at a time. Today, we begin in the Atlantic.
 

Boston Celtics

After years of stability, a 36-36 record led to Danny Ainge retiring, Brad Stevens taking over basketball operations and experienced assistant Ime Udoka taking over as a first-time head coach.

Which center should you target: Robert Williams or Al Horford?

Last season, the Celtics traded Daniel Theis, clearing the way for Williams to finally be the go-to starting center. The Texas A&M product then started 10 of Boston's next 11 games, posting 10.1 points, 9.2 boards, 2.0 blocks and 0.8 steals over 25.2 minutes per game before dealing with a left knee injury.

Meanwhile in OKC, after Al Horford appeared in 28 games, the Thunder decided to shut him down for the season. OKC's reasons were numerous: help its lottery odds, evaluate younger bigs, and prevent Horford from getting hurt before the Thunder could trade him.

Fast forward past the usual bad contract swaps and OKC draft capital accumulation, and Big Al has returned to Boston alongside Williams. But was Horford brought back to mentor Williams or to start in front of him? The answer is probably: "both".

Due to various injuries, plus some early on maturity issues, Williams has played in only 113 games in three seasons. So expecting the Time Lord to suddenly turn into Cal Ripken is ludicrous. But Horford is entering his age-36 season. So while he has forgotten more basketball than many of us will learn, gone are the days of 70+ games and 31 minutes per game.

Williams has an ADP of in the late 70's, but could lead the league in blocked shots per game. Horford is bench fodder in the lower 130's. Both could be steals. If Williams stays healthy (a BIG if), he could be a double-double machine with almost 3.0 steals + blocks per game. He could also continue to be slowed by nagging injuries. Horford could start 40+ games and be an assist leader for Boston, or father time could finally catch up to him.

If you have the chance, I say you grab both. Take Williams in the fifth round and handcuff him with Horford. Together, they'll be a cheap, Top-7 center.

Brooklyn Nets

Kevin Durant sure looked good in the Olympics, didn't he? The Nets are heavily favored to win the East, led by Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving. Presumably, the three will alternate leading what should be the best offense in the NBA. A thin bench means all three will also take turns boosting the second unit, too.

How many games will Kyrie Irving play in 2021-22?

Even before all of Irving's vaccination consternation, remember that Irving has averaged 54 games played per season over the past six years. Now he's facing a scenario in which he may not be able to play home games in Brooklyn. For a player who abandoned his teammates in Cleveland and Boston, and once debated whether the earth is round or flat, is it hard to imagine him making a frustrating decision that adversely affects his teammates? No, it isn't.

Do I think he'll play north of 50 games? No, I do not. Should you draft Irving at his current ADP in the mid-20's, for roughly 50 games played? No, you should not.

For the record, RotoWire projects 54 games played by Irving in 2021-22, and that's without my input.

New York Knicks

For the first time in forever, things are looking up for the Knicks. Julius Randle finally broke out and earned Second Team All-NBA honors last year. So one must wonder…

Can Julius Randle possibly replicate his 2020-21 numbers?

Coach Tom Thibodeau made Randle the focus of the Knicks' offense last year, and Randle delivered with a career-high 24.1 points, 10.2 boards, a career-best 6.0 assists, a career-high 2.3 triples and a career-best 0.9 steals a game, plus a career-best 81.1% from the charity stripe. That's a lot of career highs. That also resulted in the best fantasy finish (6th in total value) of Randle's career.

But this off-season, the rather thin Knicks added lots help in the backcourt via Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier. Walker and Fournier will score. Walker will also get assists, though remember as a score-first point guard, Walker averaged only 5.2 dimes per game over the last three seasons.

While RotoWire projects that Randle's scoring dips to 22.0 points per game and his assists drop to 5.0 per game. I suspect the drop in each category will be a bit more. It also seems impossible for Randle to replicate last year's 37.6 minutes per game, though his reserves haven't changed from last season. Maybe New York trusts Obi Toppin a hair more in his sophomore season? Still, Thibodeau is famous for exhausting his starters.

We have Randle ranked 26th in standard, 8-category leagues, which feels right based on the Knicks' additions and some built-in regression (Randle missed only one game last season while other stars piled up absences).

Philadelphia 76ers

You can always count on drama coming out of the City of Brotherly Love. There was really only one direction I could go with this one.

What happens with Ben Simmons?

It's a safe bet that he won't be on the Sixers' opening-night roster, further pleasing Tyrese Maxey keeper-league managers. The good news for Simmons' managers is wherever he winds up (Portland? Cleveland? Minnesota? Sacramento?), he'll clearly be a top option on offense. The hope for Simmons' fans is that the trade gets done sooner than later, but that appears increasingly unlikely. Daryl Morey is a hard-nosed strategist who does not care about players' feelings. Morey isn't going to take pennies on the dollar just to appease fans.

As of now, Morey clearly hasn't been overly intrigued by any of the offers that have come across his desk. He might be wise to let things play out and wait for an elite player to potentially shake free. Of course, with Joel Embiid in his prime, the Sixers want to end this stand-off as soon as possible, but forcing a disadvantageous trade is not the answer. 

Simmons' ADP is currently in the mid-40's, though it's widely variable from site to site. On Yahoo, he's at 55 and CBS he's all the way down to 69.  Given the current situation, I wouldn't recommend making a point to target Simmons, but if he falls to the fifth or sixth round, he could become a major value play -- especially if the two sides manage to find a suitable deal within the next two weeks.

For more Simmons banter, check out the first 15 minutes of this pod from last week:

Toronto Raptors

Kyle Lowry is now in Miami, leaving a leadership and scoring void in Toronto. With that in mind:

Can Fred VanVleet make the jump to first-round fantasy value?

RotoWire has VanVleet ranked 15th overall in standard, 8-category leagues. Not only has Lowry moved on to Miami, but Pascal Siakam is probably out until November as he rehabs a shoulder injury. That means VanVleet will be forced to often carry the load.

Toronto has no legitimate starting center, though the Chris Boucher-Khem Birch-Precious Achiuwa triad is intriguing. And while OG Anunoby continues to improve, he'll never be a go-to, one-on-one scorer. Scottie Barnes has upside, but he averaged 10.3 points per game during his one season at Florida State. Gary Trent is coming off a nice season in which he averaged 16.2 points per game with Toronto (after coming over from Portland), but at the end of the day he's mostly a three-point specialist.

With all of that in mind, VanVleet will be set to handle more offensive responsibility than ever in 2021-22. He's made tangible strides in each season since entering the league, and with the Raptors shifting back into playoff-contention mode, Nick Nurse should turn VanVleet loose. A potential 20-point-per-game scorer who hits a ton of threes and could lead the league in steals, I'm targeting VanVleet well above his current ADP (25th in Yahoo leagues; 39th in CBS).