Category Strategy: Week 23

Category Strategy: Week 23

This article is part of our Category Strategy series.

Schedules around the league are very even this week. All but six teams play four games, and the remaining six team face mostly favorable opponents. The Celtics, Bulls, Nuggets, Clippers, Timberwolves, and Trail Blazers are the teams with six games. Of that group, only the Nuggets and Trail Blazers lack at least one opponent in the bottom eight for defensive rating since the All-Star break.

Teams with daily lineups should target the Wizards for their Tuesday-Wednesday back-to-back against the Lakers and Clippers, and ditch their Wizard for a member of the Suns, Lakers, Nets, Bulls. The Lakers and Clippers are two of the most fantasy-friendly defenses since the All-Star break, but the Wizards' schedule turns sour at the end of the week, with tough matchups against the Lakers and Warriors. All four of teams in the latter group play Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday and face at least one very easy defense. The Rockets also end the week with three games in four days, but they play on a very busy Friday, and rest on the slow Saturday, so managers might not get the full advantage from all three games.

Points

Nikola Mirotic, Bulls
(Ownership: ESPN – 26%; Yahoo – 70%; CBS – 61%)

Mirotic should never leave your watch list, though he doesn't always put up roster-worthy numbers. Sometimes, he averages 23.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.7 threes in 33.7 minutes over a three game stretch – like, for example, his current run. But other times, he averages just

Schedules around the league are very even this week. All but six teams play four games, and the remaining six team face mostly favorable opponents. The Celtics, Bulls, Nuggets, Clippers, Timberwolves, and Trail Blazers are the teams with six games. Of that group, only the Nuggets and Trail Blazers lack at least one opponent in the bottom eight for defensive rating since the All-Star break.

Teams with daily lineups should target the Wizards for their Tuesday-Wednesday back-to-back against the Lakers and Clippers, and ditch their Wizard for a member of the Suns, Lakers, Nets, Bulls. The Lakers and Clippers are two of the most fantasy-friendly defenses since the All-Star break, but the Wizards' schedule turns sour at the end of the week, with tough matchups against the Lakers and Warriors. All four of teams in the latter group play Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday and face at least one very easy defense. The Rockets also end the week with three games in four days, but they play on a very busy Friday, and rest on the slow Saturday, so managers might not get the full advantage from all three games.

Points

Nikola Mirotic, Bulls
(Ownership: ESPN – 26%; Yahoo – 70%; CBS – 61%)

Mirotic should never leave your watch list, though he doesn't always put up roster-worthy numbers. Sometimes, he averages 23.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.7 threes in 33.7 minutes over a three game stretch – like, for example, his current run. But other times, he averages just 6.5 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.5 threes in 21.5 minutes – as he did in the two games before this run. Since the All-Star break, and the trade that sent away Taj Gibson, Mirotic has had more good games than bad, and his current run is fantastic. He's a solid add for the Bulls' three games in four nights to end the week.

Terrence Ross has scored double-digits in five straight, chiming in 2.4 threes in 29.4 minutes. His best games are worse than Mirotic's best games, but he doesn't carry the same risk of random and complete collapses.

The 76ers have given Shawn Long 19.0 minutes over their last three games, and he has turned them into 15.3 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. The production merits an add, but the short minutes are concerning, especially since he's never played more than 15 minutes when Jahlil Okafor (knee) was active. I'm recommending him only for deep leagues, but risky (bold?) standard league managers may want to take a look as well.

Other suggestions:Terrence Ross, Magic; Marquese Chriss, Suns; Willy Hernangomez, Knicks; Nene, Rockets

Keeper suggestions:Marquese Chriss, Suns; Brandon Ingram, Lakers

Deep leagues only:Shawn Long, 76ers

Three-Pointers

Allen Crabbe, Trail Blazers
(Ownership: ESPN – 14%; Yahoo – 35%; CBS – 26%)

Crabbe has been a popular streaming option for weeks (at least in the leagues I'm in), but few have held on to the sharp-shooting wing. He's averaging 11.9 points in March, only a minor hit in the category, while shooting an efficient 48.8 percent from the field, and 46.4 percent from behind the arc. He's averaging 2.3 threes per game, and he also pitches in some rebounds and steals. His minutes have been remarkably stable for months – the presence or absence of Evan Turner (hand), and the fluctuating workloads of Maurice Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu have had no discernible impact on Crabbe. Crabbe has averaged 28.5 minutes this season, and it is hard to find stretches where his average varies by more than a minute from that figure.

Other suggestions:Terrence Ross, Raptors; Jamal Crawford, Clippers; Yogi Ferrell, Mavericks; Anthony Tolliver, Kings

Deep leagues only:Nik Stauskas, 76ers

Rebounds

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Nets
(Ownership: ESPN – 17%; Yahoo – 55%; CBS – 42%)

Hollis-Jefferson is a leading contender for my "most disappointing fantasy season" award, but he's still finding ways to contribute. Having a small forward or shooting guard capable of bringing in double-digit rebounds is a rare asset, and could go a long way toward covering substantial ground with so little of the season remaining. He has four double-digit rebounding games in his last nine, and is averaging 8.8 per game during that span. He also adds nearly a block and a steal per game. He is averaging 23.3 minutes per game during the Net's current 5-4 streak – one of their strongest stretches of the season.

P.J. Tucker offers similar advantages to Hollis Thompson, especially as it relates to positional eligibility. He scores less and doesn't really block shots, but he makes threes and he is an accomplished thief. Tucker's role on a playoff contender scrapping for seeding should ensure reliable minutes down the stretch.

Other suggestions:Willie Cauley-Stein, Kings; Willy Hernangomez, Knicks; P.J. Tucker, Raptors

Keeper suggestions:Willie Cauley-Stein, Kings

Deep leagues only:Shawn Long, 76ers

Assists

Patty Mills, Spurs
(Ownership: ESPN – 18%; Yahoo – 33%; CBS – 33%)

The Spurs' backup point guard is making good use of his 21.2 minutes over the past five games, scoring 10.4 points and dishing 5.8 assists along with 1.2 steals. There are other passers, listed below, who are providing similar assist totals, but they aren't providing the help in other categories.

Brandon Jennings is a pure specialist, contributing almost nothing – and I mean that literally, without exaggeration, close to 0.0 – in everything except assists. That said, he's averaging a really impressive 5.9 assists in only 16.0 minutes over his last 11 games. Few waiver wire players have such a high total over so many games. Tim Frazier is performing a similar role for the Pelicans. His assist numbers are slightly lower, but his non-assists are slightly further from zero. If you need a hard jolt to your assist totals, they're your guys. If you need anything else, look elsewhere. In most settings, Mills is preferable to both, if he is available.

Josh Richardson is barely worth adding right now – whatever your needs are, there are probably better options. However, he's flashed some ability as a passer recently, and I am bullish on his long-term potential. A strong last month, combined with a promising summer league and/or preseason, and Richardson could turn into a top-100 pick next October. In some leagues, that warrants keeper attention.

Other suggestions:Cory Joseph, Raptors; Andre Iguodala, Warriors; Brandon Jennings, Wizards; Tim Frazier, Pelicans

Keeper suggestions:Josh Richardson, Heat

Steals

Andre Roberson, Thunder
(Ownership: ESPN – 4%; Yahoo – 9%; CBS – 24%)

In an unexpected turn of events, waiver wire thieves have become as scarce as shot-blockers over the past few weeks. As a result, the best thing you can do (unless Terrence Ross is available, but I've talked about him a bunch since he was traded to the Magic) is add a really good specialist. Roberson has 10 steals in his last four games, and has at least one steal in seven of his past nine. He's locked in for big minutes as the Thunder's version of a "three and D" wing, who just happens to be not-so-good at the threes part. In addition to the 1.8 steals, he is averaging over the past nine games, he is also grabbing 4.2 rebounds and swatting 1.0 blocks.

Other suggestions:Terrence Ross, Magic; Cody Zeller, Hornets; P.J. Tucker, Raptors

Blocks

Marquese Chriss, Suns
(Ownership: ESPN – 39%; Yahoo – 52%; CBS – 65%)

If you're like me, when you're looking to add blocks, the first thing you do is sort by who has the most blocks per game over a recent stretch. Chriss will not appear using that method, since he only has one block in the five games since March 17. Nonetheless, Chriss is a strong rim-protector. Before his recent drought, he averaged 2.6 blocks per game over an eight game stretch, with at least one rejection in each game. Regardless of his recent play, Chriss is one of the best shot-blockers available.

Other suggestions:Willie Cauley-Stein, Kings; Amir Johnson, Celtics; Andre Roberson, Thunder

Keeper suggestions:Willie Cauley-Stein, Kings; Marquese Chriss, Suns

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Rikleen
Rikleen writes the NBA column "Numbers Game," which decodes the math that underpins fantasy basketball and was a nominee for the 2016 FSWA Newcomer of the Year Award. A certified math teacher, Rikleen decided the field of education pays too well, so he left it for writing. He is a Boston College graduate living outside Boston.
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