This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
With pitchers and catchers reporting, baseball season is finally upon us, and cross your fingers, it looks like a full season of 162 games! For most leagues, draft day is on the horizon, and "wait until next year" is now. That's okay. We'll be ready. As in the past, I'll cover one division each week, and hopefully, we should have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2021 season. Things will surely change as spring training progresses, but we handle those on the fly. Remember, the Musings are intended to be interactive. Ask questions and share your opinions. That's what we're here for. Let's get to it and look at the:
National League West
Arizona Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks are in a state of transition and probably don't have the horses to hang with their loaded division rivals. The biggest name in the rotation is Madison Bumgarner, but health issues (and probably advancing age to some extent) have sapped his productivity. That leaves the first spot in the rotation to Zac Gallen. He may be their No. 1, but in fantasy terms, he's more of a middle of the rotation starter. He's useful as long as you don't over-expect. The rest of the mound corps is pretty nondescript. Caleb Smith should have a spot, but he's never really excited me. Lefty Alex Young should improve, but I am doubtful any improvement will translate into fantasy value. Another to consider would be Taylor Clarke, but I would be
With pitchers and catchers reporting, baseball season is finally upon us, and cross your fingers, it looks like a full season of 162 games! For most leagues, draft day is on the horizon, and "wait until next year" is now. That's okay. We'll be ready. As in the past, I'll cover one division each week, and hopefully, we should have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2021 season. Things will surely change as spring training progresses, but we handle those on the fly. Remember, the Musings are intended to be interactive. Ask questions and share your opinions. That's what we're here for. Let's get to it and look at the:
National League West
Arizona Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks are in a state of transition and probably don't have the horses to hang with their loaded division rivals. The biggest name in the rotation is Madison Bumgarner, but health issues (and probably advancing age to some extent) have sapped his productivity. That leaves the first spot in the rotation to Zac Gallen. He may be their No. 1, but in fantasy terms, he's more of a middle of the rotation starter. He's useful as long as you don't over-expect. The rest of the mound corps is pretty nondescript. Caleb Smith should have a spot, but he's never really excited me. Lefty Alex Young should improve, but I am doubtful any improvement will translate into fantasy value. Another to consider would be Taylor Clarke, but I would be more likely to move past him and look at Luke Weaver or maybe even Jon Duplantier. Both are risky to say the least, but it's possible Weaver could regain his form of a few seasons ago before injuries derailed his career, Duplantier missed all of 2020 with elbow issues, but there is reportedly no structural damage. However, even if healthy, his role with the team could be as a swingman, which would limit his fantasy value. In short, there just isn't a lot to get excited about in their rotation options.
This is a bullpen that in some ways mirrors the rotation. The most recognizable name is the recently signed Joakim Soria. Once a dominant closer, he no longer possesses the devastating arsenal he sported earlier in his career, but he still knows how to get hitters out, and my guess is he will perhaps share closing duties. Stefan Crichton saved a handful of games last season and will probably remain in the mix this year. He has just adequate stuff and would be better in a set-up role. Kevin Ginkel and Yoan Lopez will also see work in the later innings, and Ginkel, who has a lively arm, could even be considered a dark horse for save chances, but he'll need to display some consistency.
Recapping the Diamondbacks:
The arm to roster: Zac Gallen, but be careful not to overpay.
He'll likely be overpriced: Madison Bumgarner needs to show there is something left.
Best of the bullpen: Slight edge to Joakim Soria based on his past success.
Colorado Rockies – This is pretty much a copy of the 2020 Colorado pitching staff. Coors Field is still Coors Field, and pitchers who spend half their time there are still fantasy risks. There is some quality, but overcoming the risk is always a challenge. German Marquez might be the closest they have. His overall splits for road and home performance have been relatively neutral. He has the stuff to get it done anywhere, but, ideally, fantasy owners can pick and choose when to have him in the lineup. Jon Gray is the other top arm on the staff. He would be worth considering, but shoulder woes really hampered him last year, and shoulder injuries almost always scare me away on draft day. Kyle Freeland is different. He doesn't have the big arm of Marquez or Gray, but I do like his mound presence. Not surprisingly, following a jaw-dropping 2018, he has failed to replicate those peripherals, but I still think he could be a bit better than he has been recently. After the top three, the options for the last two or three spots are fantasy risks. I suppose Antonio Senzatela deserves some attention, but I expect regression from his moderately successful 2020 results. Ryan Castellani will likely take a turn, but command issues and a low strikeout rate are not fantasy assets. And, the one newcomer, Austin Gomber, who was acquired in the Nolan Arrenado deal, will also see a few starts, but don't expect a repeat of his numbers with the Cardinals.
The Rockies tried investing heavily in their bullpen over the past few years. It has pretty much been a disaster. Those guys are mostly gone, but the pen still appears to be a weakness. Scott Oberg when healthy is likely their best option to close games, but he has suffered through various injuries and has gone through thoracic outlet surgery, so his health is a huge question mark. That probably leaves the ninth inning to Daniel Bard, but he's not the long term answer. They actually do have a deep pen beyond those two including former Orioles closer, Mychal Givens, Robert Stephenson, along with live-armed Jairo Diaz and Carlos Estevez, but risk probably trumps their potential reward.
Recapping the Rockies:
The arm to roster: If I have to own one, it would probably be German Marquez.
He'll likely be overpriced: I anticipate regression from Antonio Senzatela.
Best of the bullpen: Scott Oberg, if he's healthy, but that's a huge if.
Los Angeles Dodgers – In all my years evaluating pitchers, I don't believe I have ever seen a rotation quite this loaded. The rich have clearly gotten richer. Where to start? Clayton Kershaw is getting a little older and he has dealt with some nagging injuries, but he appears to be making the transition from young, big arm, to still having a pretty big arm to an even more wily veteran. He remains at the top of their rotation, albeit sharing that spot with another star on the rise. The heir apparent in is Walker Buehler. Let's put it this way. He has the stuff and he has the mound presence. And, we haven't seen his best yet. If I were to compile a five-man dream fantasy rotation for the next several years, Buehler would be on it. Enough said? Then we add last year's Cy Young winner, Trevor Bauer. He's a unique personality, but his philosophy is working. Moving on, it seems a bit strange listing David Price as a No 4., but that's where he slots in for me. Price opted out last year, so he hasn't been on the mound recently so that does concern me somewhat. The deep Dodgers' mound corps affords them the luxury of using one of the top pitching prospects in the game as a fifth starter. Injuries have slowed the progress of Julio Urias, but he's primed to take the next step, and this might be your last chance to get him at even a modest discount. He would be a two on many staffs and even a one on some. Right now, there isn't room for a couple of other good youngsters. Dustin May, will likely see some starts as will Tony Gonsolin, but as talented as they are, they are fringy fantasy buys unless a regular spot opens up.
Kenley Jansen hasn't quite been the lights-out closer we've come to know and love. His dominating cutter has lost a tick, and it wasn't as sharp as it has always been. Still, I believe he'll again be a top closer. Just in case, the Dodgers have plenty of support and insurance on hand. Experienced endgamer Blake Treinen should again fill a key set-up role (as well as serving as Jansen's primary insurance policy). He, along with Joe Kelly, should bridge the gap from starter to Jansen. They also added another arm with closing experience in Corey Knebel, and one other name to watch is Brusdar Graterol. He has an electric arm and is probably the heir apparent to Jansen.
Recapping the Dodgers:
The arm to roster: All of them? Julio Urias may be the biggest bargain.
He'll likely be overpriced: I'm concerned about David Price's health/rust.
Best of the bullpen: Kenley Jansen. I think he still has it for at least another year.
San Diego Padres –The Padres are developing some nice arms in their system, and they are adding pieces via trades and free agency that should see them in playoff contention right now. Looking at a rapidly improving rotation, first up is the newly acquired Yu Darvish. He has everything in sync now, and with an exciting young team behind him plus pitching home games in pitcher-friendly PETCO Park, Darvish is an early frontrunner for the NL Cy Young. Next up is Blake Snell who comes over from Tampa Bay. When healthy, he is a threat to Darvish for postseason awards. Regular readers will know that my focus on the Friars staff has been centered on Dinelson Lamet. He has perhaps the best slider in the game, but it comes at a price. He underwent Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2018. He returned in midseason the next yearand continued to impress but elbow issues resurfaced in 2020, and his health is a question mark entering 2021. Mike Clevinger would slip into the rotation here, but he'll miss this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery himself. So, Chris Paddack moves up to the four spot. He too has impressed with his command of the strike zone and quality repertoire. The fifth spot likely belongs to Joe Musgrove. He is an adequate back-of-the-rotation guy with some upside. Today, that's the nucleus, but just be patient, they have more quality kids on the way. I like Adrian Morejon a bit and he could see a few starts, but the headliner is MacKenzie Gore. He is a must own in keeper/dynasty leagues. He might have the highest ceiling in the organization, and that's saying a lot.
The Padres lost closer in Kirby Yates but they are assembling a very competent bullpen. Another recent addition, Mark Melancon, is the favorite for saves, but southpaw Drew Pomeranz and righty Emilio Pagan could also see some ninth-inning work. Additionally, Austin Adams, Craig Stammen and Matt Strahm form a solid bridge to the late innings. That's a very deep and talented bullpen.
Recapping the Padres:
The arm to roster: Dinelson Lamet is an ace in the making if he can stay healthy.
He'll likely be overpriced: Joe Musgrove isn't bad, but his value could be inflated.
Best of the bullpen: Mark Melancon gets the edge. He has enjoyed success.
San Francisco Giants – San Francisco seems to be a frequent landing place for pitchers who intrigue me. That's not necessarily an endorsement, but it does make assessment more interesting. The Giants pitching staff starts with two of those guys. I have always liked Johnny Cueto, who throws with arms and legs coming from every angle (and at different speeds). When he's healthy and on his game he's a handful, but at age 35, it's hard to say how he'll fare or how many innings he can contribute. Now we come to Kevin Gausman. He signed with the Giants after a fairly respectable 2020 campaign. Long time readers are very aware of my opinion of Gausman, so I won't belabor the point. Gausman can look like an ace one day and look like cannon fodder the next. Predicting which, on any given day, has proven to be a supreme challenge. The rest of the probable starters, Aaron Sanchez, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Logan Webb are all in the hunt for a starting berth, they all have some small potential for upside and they all have one other thing in common – they probably won't help a fantasy team. If I had to take one, it would probably be Wood or Sanchez, who can be competent when healthy but have long injury histories.
The bullpen might be even more unsettled than the rotation. The most logical closer is Reyes Moronta, but he has displayed command issues and he underwent shoulder surgery and missed all of last year, making him iffy at best. After Moronta, things really get cloudy with a chance of meatballs. Maybe they will look at the twin brother of Twins' closer Taylor Rogers? Taylor and Tyler Rogers might be twins, but there isn't much similarity on the mound. Taylor is a southpaw, while Tyler is a right-handed submariner with an 82 mph fastball. I don't see it. Maybe journeymen Jake McGee or Trevor Gott will get a shot. The truth is, there isn't a truly viable closing candidate on the roster.
Recapping the Giants:
The arm to roster: Kevin Gausman, because, well, I just can't help myself.
He'll likely be overpriced: Anthony DeSclafani still needs to find an answer for lefties.
Best of the bullpen: Reyes Moronta I guess, but he's a true leap of faith.
Next week we'll continue our pitching staff previews with a look at the AL West.
