Mound Musings: The “Kids on Parade” Watch List for 2021

This is the column I typically look forward to the most every season. As regular readers are probably aware, I play almost exclusively in keeper and dynasty leagues. And, not surprisingly, there is a huge benefit to identifying and acquiring excellent pitching talent just before they arrive in the major leagues.

The problem is, this list is actually getting more difficult to maintain. There are still plenty of young arms with high ceilings, but it seems like more and more of the blue-chippers are being called to the majors earlier, a fact that has been greatly accelerated with the shorter season and no minor league games. The result has been an unprecedented rush to the major leagues, and we are left trying to sift through all those kids in an attempt to add the real impact arms, while avoiding the pretenders.

Therefore, unlike other Parades, the pitchers below primarily are guys who have already appeared with their MLB parent club. It just isn't possible to assess the better prospects who haven't gotten the call because we simply don't have minor league games with which to measure their progress. Hopefully things will be back to "normal" next year, but in the meantime, we can look at the prospects we have seen. Let's get started: 

Put (Keep) These Guys On Your Watch List …

MacKenzie Gore (SD) – Gore has been high on this list since he was drafted, but he reached the top spot last season, and I don't like to move down pitchers based on injuries, or, in this case, lack of opportunities to watch his progress. Therefore he keeps the spot even though he has yet to graduate. I thought we might see him in San Diego this year, but the Padres decided to keep him at their alternate site while they continue to smooth out his motion and mechanics. Southpaws often take a bit longer to get everything together, but he has already displayed excellent command of his entire repertoire despite being just 21, yet the ongoing refinement plan makes a lot of sense. There's really no reason to rush him when the team's long-term future is so bright. I really look forward to seeing him and Dinelson Lamet at the top of that rotation. I just can't decide who would be the No. 1 and who would be the No. 2.

Sixto Sanchez (MIA) – I have liked Sanchez since I first saw him pitch a couple years ago. The raw potential was pretty obvious. But now, at age 22, in his debut season with Miami, my expectations have turned sharply upward. I see a lot of young arms, and I see good things for quite a few, but I don't often put the "ace" label on many. Folks, this guy is an ace in the oven. He already has upper 90s velocity, a plus changeup, a coming slider and can display good command. What more could you ask for? He just needs time and experience. He's still learning, and there will be bumps in the road along the way, but if he stays on his current path with the movement he generates, and he stays relatively healthy, Sanchez is the kind of pitcher you build a franchise around.

Nate Pearson (TOR) – Pearson has the best raw stuff of anyone on the list. His arm is what team's dream of, and the Jays have him riding the express. He began 2019 at High-A Dunedin (can you say mismatch, 10 hits and three walks with 35 strikeouts over 21 innings). He then stopped off at Double-A New Hampshire, before finishing the season at Triple-A Buffalo. He fairly easily sits mid-upper 90s, but he can hit triple digits when he wants to, and notably, he pitches on an extremely exaggerated downward plane which is almost unfair. He made his MLB debut this year with mixed results due to still needing to fine tune his command, and some red flags went up when he hit the injured list with a flexor strain, but if he gets, and stays, healthy (he's expected back yet this season), he could be a dominating starter. You want him on your roster.

Ian Anderson (ATL) – The top three are the crème de la crème of this list, so the next couple guys are merely great prospects. The Braves always seem to have a couple guys on this list, and it happens for a very good reason. They can spot top tier talent, and they are more patient than many other organizations in developing that talent. Two years ago, the top Braves prospect on my kid's list was Mike Soroka. He made a huge splash before missing most of this season with a torn Achilles. Now it's Anderson's turn, and the preliminary results have certainly been promising. His strikeout totals will likely outshine Soroka's, but he doesn't have the same surgical command of the strike zone. In fact, his biggest weakness is getting behind in counts and being forced to rely too heavily on his excellent fastball. I have seen some notable improvement, and he's still just 21, so giving him a little more time to refine things is appropriate. I see him eventually sharing top billing in the Braves rotation.

Brady Singer (KC) – In the 2018 first-year player draft I had Casey Mize (went first overall) and Singer (went No. 18 overall) as the top two pitchers in that draft class. Mize has the pure power arm so he was no surprise, but Singer dropped further down than I expected. And, there are actually some things I like better about Singer. Top of the list is competitiveness and mound demeanor. He has those in abundance, and they are things I always look for in a young arm. He has already displayed that stay-cool-under-pressure demeanor, carrying a no-hitter into the eighth inning of just his ninth MLB start. He clearly would have benefitted from a year at Triple-A this season, but that wasn't in the cards with the COVID-19 situation. Instead, he pitched pretty competently for the Royals, which underscores his mature approach to pitching. He doesn't have the raw stuff to afford him a sky high ceiling, but he looks like a solid starter going forward.

Garrett Crochet (CWS) – When you're left-handed and you hit triple-digits with your fastball, people understandably take notice. In Crochet's first game for the White Sox, he threw 13 pitches and six lit up the radar gun. He was the first pitcher from the 2020 draft class to pitch in the majors, and his fantasy value is likely to be limited for a while. He'll pitch exclusively out of the bullpen this year – nice to have a beast like him from the left side – and if things turn normal in 2021 I think there's a decent chance he spends most or all of the season in the minors, but the Sox have been untraditional in the past, allowing young arms to learn on the job in the major league bullpen. His future is in the rotation, so dynasty players will want to scoop him up in any event.

Deivi Garcia (NYY) – When I was a kid, there was a game where you pulled petals or leaves from a plant muttering, "I love him," I love him not," and we haven't pulled the last petal on Garcia yet. I have seen him pitch where I moved to the edge of my seat, but, at other times, he looked awfully vulnerable. Yes, he is small at 5'9", but I don't let that bother me (think Pedro Martinez), and his mound presence is amazing. In fact, it might be too amazing sometimes. He wants to challenge every hitter on every pitch. I love his breaking pitchers, although they could be more consistent, but I think he'll need a more reliable changeup as he learns to pick and choose his battles. Some think he might be better in the bullpen, but I'd prefer to see how he develops as a starter.

Casey Mize (DET) – The consensus is that Matt Manning and Mize are 1a and 1b in the Tigers' future rotation projections, but I am still experiencing mild concern (at this point) regarding Mize's ultimate ceiling. Don't get me wrong. He's still on my list, and he deserves to be. I just think I'd like to see a little different pitch mix. Mize relies heavily on his splitter – not my favorite pitch – and he throws a mid-90's fastball, a cutter, a slider, and he's even added a slurve, but I don't think the soft stuff is quite as effective. He was the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft, he enjoyed a successful first season as a pro and he even authored a no-hitter back in April, 2019 at Double-A Erie. Maybe I'm setting the bar unfairly high, but I do believe a bit more consistency with his soft stuff could propel him into the top tier of pitching prospects. I like him with some reservations.

Tony Gonsolin (LAD) – Let's drop down another notch on the food chain for this next group. Gonsolin is one of those pitchers who usually just seems to outperform his expectations, and, in many ways, that's a good thing. I see good stuff, but not top-of-the-rotation good, and there are things that make me wonder if he might run into some trouble if he was asked to take a regular turn every five days. He has a decent fastball and splitter, but his other pitches aren't particularly consistent meaning he could have a tough time, especially against lefty swingers, if he has to face a lineup three or more times in a start. Right now, pending improvement of his off speed stuff, he is a perfect fit for his current role – long reliever/spot starter. The jury is still out on a future role.

Cristian Javier (HOU) – Sometimes I am underwhelmed when I first start tracking a young pitcher, but over time he will begin to win me over. Such is the case with Javier. His stuff is good but not great, and I think he will need a more reliable changeup to protect from being vulnerable to lefty hitters. On the plus side, he gets a lot of spin on his average fastball and solid breaking pitches, which creates good movement, and he spots his pitches pretty well. With the recent announcement that Justin Verlander will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss all of 2021, the Astros will need Javier to produce. He doesn't have the ceiling of a true blue-chipper, so don't get carried away, but he might be able to help a fantasy team as a back-of-the-rotation option.

Dylan Cease (CWS) – Cease has raw stuff that's good enough to play at the major league level, but he has to throw strikes. The only consistency he has displayed thus far is the tendency to be wildly (often literally) inconsistent. I watched his most recent start against Cincinnati. In the fourth inning he had held the Reds hitless. That's good, right? Unfortunately, he had walked seven (and hit a batter for extra credit) when he was pulled before retiring a hitter in the frame. Just watching his pitches I can understand grabbing him and stashing him on your dynasty league bench, but he's far too risky to stick in your rotation until he finds a way to lock in a release point and hit his spots.

Adrian Morejon (SD) – He's been a bit of a hard read since coming from Cuba back in 2016. The lanky southpaw has a very good arm, hitting 97 to 98 mph on his fastball with a quality breaking ball and changeup. The challenges are multifaceted. He's 6'0" and 165 pounds – not exactly the prototypical starter build – and he has dealt with health issues over most of his pro career, limiting his innings. However, he's still just 21 and has faced older competition most of his young career. The Padres have used him (with success) as a long reliever and opener, and it's possible his future could be as a swingman to keep his workload under control. That would limit his fantasy upside, but I like his stuff and have him stashed in a couple dynasty leagues to see how it plays out.

As you can imagine, there are still quite a few blue chip prospects who didn't appear in the majors this season, and because there was no minor league season, tracking their progress was nearly impossible. Here are a just few other honorable mentions who surely would have received consideration (in no special order) for inclusion in the 2021 Parade: Forrest Whitley (HOU), Michael Kopech (CWS), Matt Manning (DET), Eric Pardinho (TOR), Hunter Greene (CIN), Jordan Balazovic (MIN), Asa Lacy (KC), Simeon Woods Richardson (TOR), Grayson Rodriguez (BAL), Josiah Gray (LAD), Max Meyer (MIA), Emerson Hancock (SEA), and Clarke Schmidt (NYY).

That's a wrap. As always, remember, this year even more than ever before, the Parade is almost a living thing, constantly evolving and changing. I want to thank all of my regular readers and contributors for participating in the interactive comments and questions section! That is the best part of it for me. This marks the conclusion of my 10th season as a weekly columnist for Rotowire, and I'm already looking forward to 2021. Unfortunately, I see this year's Arizona Fall League has been cancelled – always a great opportunity to check the progress of young stars on the rise – but hopefully things will get back to normal, and we can dig in with enthusiasm when pitchers and catchers report next February. Be well my friends!