Collette Calls: Do We Need to Adjust Expectations for Offense?

This is one man's opinion, but after watching these three highlights, I'm all but certain that the Super Ball is back for 2020.  Exhibit A: C.J. Cron "pokes" one to left that would have been a home run if not for that meddling kid Riley Greene:

Exhibit B: Clint Frazier taking Rick Porcello into the second tank in left center field. That looked like home run you see in a Home Run Derby from a superstar:

Exhibit C: while a hanging slider - gets hit to Skokie by Luis Robert:

What if the super happy bouncy fun ball's gains were somewhat negated by the unique pitching utilization we will undoubtedly see this season given that major league managers will have 28- to 30-man rosters for 50 percent of the season with no limitations on pitcher spots on that roster?

I decided to dive into the data a bit and look at what could happen with the changes in the game we will see this season. It is worth noting that some of the changes have gradually happened over the course of the last decade, even if they were not obvious to everyone. 

I have harped enough on the Times Through The Order Penalty, so no need to re-hash what it is. However, the chart below shows what the league-wide ERA is for starting pitchers as they travel through the batting order. Last season, the collective group of starting pitching had the highest ERA of any split on that table:

The point for 2020 is all 30 clubs know the TTOP is a real thing and pay credence to it, just ask Tyler Mahle:

I explained in last week's column why I love Mahle this season if David Bell and the club do more of this and convince Mahle it is in his best interest. You will recall Mahle had the worst numbers in the National League when left in the game and exposed to the TTOP.

This concept was tough to comprehend for many pitchers and clubs at the turn of the last decade. In 2010, one of every three home runs allowed by a starting pitcher came in a hitter's third or forth plate appearance against that pitcher. Gradually, that figure was reduced so now, one in four homers allowed by a starting pitcher come in those same conditions:

That trend shows major league managers are leaning to the bullpen more frequently, whether it is to pull the starter early or it is to leverage an opener and then use the starter two times through after the opener has done his work. The 

The stats above show how the collective relief pitching group — 99 percent of which never turns a lineup over — collectively outperforms starting pitchers left in the game for more exposure. There are fewer baserunners, fewer home runs, and thus, fewer runs scored when relievers are allowed to flex their muscles later in the game.

The flaw in the approach in a normal season is that it is incredibly tough to absorb a high bullpen workload over the full season, which is why you see successful clubs add depth and keep the shuttle warm between the big league clubhouse and the Triple-A affiliate. The shorter season provides managers with an opportunity to push the pen a bit more, first with the expanded rosters early on, and then with fresh arms at their beck and call in the player pool without the worry of who was used in a Triple-A game in recent days. 

Simply put, I expect the offensive environment to be somewhat lower this year than in year's past as a side effect of the unconventional ways in which pitching staffs will be utilized in 2020. If you do happen to have a draft left between now and opening day, draft accordingly.