Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

It's June, and still, there's no Major League Baseball in sight.  What a strange summer it will be if our national pastime does not return.  The empty, cavernous stadiums standing as broken monuments, like the Roman Coliseum, leaving us only to gawk at their majesty.  Imagine a year without a World Series; that hasn't happened since 1994, the strike-shortened season that almost destroyed baseball.  The minor league season may never begin, leaving plenty of professional ballplayers in limbo.  Even if some players return to big-league stadiums, it is highly unlikely fans will be joining them.

The refrain remains the same; if the 2020 baseball season does take place, it may not resemble the game we have all grown up with, know and love.  Different format, unique rules.  Still, some baseball is better than no baseball, right?

Until we know more, though, the Minor League Barometer is going to operate as it always has — by taking a deeper look at young ballplayers who deserve publicity.  That is true whether or not they  play in 2020.

UPGRADE

Peyton Burdick, OF, MIA – Burdick was rather impressive after being drafted in the third round of last year's draft, though perhaps that is unsurprising giving his college pedigree.  He got as high as Low-A, playing 63 games.  He slashed .307/.408/.542 with 10 home runs, 59 RBI and six steals over that span.  Burdick has tremendous raw power with the ability to take a walk, and while he did fan 67 times, that figure is not outrageous given the production.  He also has enough speed to make an impact on the base paths as well.  Burdick has his naysayers (lacks ideal size, too much swing and miss, played against lesser competition), but he has enough upside to warrant monitoring, and the proof may end up being in the pudding.

Jeremy Pena, SS, HOU – The son of former big-leaguer Geronimo Pena, Jeremy was drafted in 2018 as a glove-first shortstop, but his bat showed plenty of promise in 2019.  Between Low-A and High-A, Pena slashed .303/.385/.440 in 109 games.  He clubbed seven home runs and swiped 20 bags.  Pena has pretty good speed and the ability to hit for average.  While his lack of plus power may hurt him, Pena is not completely devoid of pop, so he still may be able to hit double-digit home runs at the higher levels.  If that happens, the 22-year-old would become an even more intriguing phenom.

Max Lazar, P, MIL – Though the Brewers don't have elite-level arms in their system, they do have some intriguing hurlers in the form of Ethan Small, Aaron Ashby, Antoine Kelly and Lazar.  The 20-year-old Lazar found little resistance in his first taste of full-season ball, sporting a 2.39 ERA and 109:15 K:BB in just 79 innings.  Though he was shuffled between the bullpen and the starting rotation, Lazar had at least six starts of at least five innings or more.  He will turn 21 soon, but still has the ability to fill out and add to his 6-foot-3, 175-lb frame.  An 11th round pick in the 2017 draft, Lazar is not an imposing figure on the mound, but the results show plenty of promise.  If Lazar can add a few ticks to his fastball, his three-pitch arsenal could become deadly.

Thomas Szapucki, P, NYM – Szapucki had started to gain some notoriety before needing Tommy John surgery, which wiped out all of his 2018 campaign.  The southpaw returned in 2019 and though on a strict innings limit, appeared at three levels, culminating in a four-inning start at Double-A at the end of last year.  Overall, in 61.2 innings across those three stops, Szapucki notched a 2.63 ERA and 72:26 K:BB.  Opposing batters hit just .214 against him.  Szapucki was added to the 40-man roster and has an excellent fastball/slider combination.  He does have a rather checkered injury history and has pitched just 145 innings in the minors since being drafted in 2015.  That being said, if the health holds, Szapucki has the potential to turn some heads.

CHECK STATUS

Drew Rom, P, BAL – There is still some question as to whether Rom will be a starter or reliever down the line, but the statistics were impressive in his first full season of minor league ball.  Rom posted a 2.93 ERA and 122:33 K:BB in 95.1 innings at Low-A.  Opponents hit just .228 against him.  Rom threw a largely fastball/slider combo, though did mix in a developing changeup.  He is not overpowering with his fastball, rather getting by with command and deception in his delivery.  That being said, the 6-foot-2 southpaw just turned 20 in the offseason, so there could be room to mature and add a few ticks on his fastball.  That may go a long way towards determining whether Rom will be an impact starter, an innings eater or just a lefty arm out of the bullpen.

Roansy Contreras, P, NYY – Contreras has drawn comparisons to Luis Severino, and certainly that is meant to be complimentary.  Contreras just turned 20 at the end of last year, but made 24 starts at Low-A prior to that.  Contreras has three pitches, does not walk many batters and gets plenty of weak contact.  The opposition hit just .215 against him last year.  Despite the standout stuff and stellar control, he is still working on achieving the desired rate of punch outs.  Contreras fanned 113 batters in 132.1 innings in 2019.  The Yankees are hoping that as he hones his craft and becomes more of a pitcher instead of a thrower, the strikeout rate will jump higher.  Contreras also doesn't have elite size either, which is another knock on him.  Still, his fastball/slider/changeup combination can look lethal at times, so the upside remains for Contreras.

Miguel Vargas 3B, LAD – On the plus side, Vargas hit over .300 combined between Low-A and High-A in 2019, demonstrated patience at the dish, drove in 77 runs and even swiped 13 bags in 124 games.  Not bad for a teenager.  Now 20, Vargas has one knock on the hitting side; power, or lack thereof.  While he did collect 38 doubles in 2019, Vargas smacked just seven home runs, rather unacceptable numbers for a corner infielder.  Just two of those home runs came in the 54 games he played in the hitter-friendly confines of the California League.  Whether he ends up at third base or at first base, Vargas will have to hit for more power to become an impact prospect at the higher levels.  He is still on the young side, though, so there is hope the power stroke for Vargas will come around.  Should that happen, he would vault up the prospect ranks.

Victor Vodnik, P, ATL – With a name better suited for a James Bond villain, Vodnik is a helium prospect to keep on your radar.  A 14th round pick in 2018, Vodnik pitched so well in 2019 at Low-A, largely out of the bullpen, that the Braves have entertained the notion of stretching him out as a starter.  In 23 games as a 19-year-old last season (three starts), Vodnik compiled a 2.94 ERA and 69:24 K:BB.  Over those 67.1 innings, opposing batters hit just .223 against him.  Vodnik's delivery has some deception to it, and he works with largely a fastball/slider repertoire at this time.  Still, a changeup appears in the works, and it is difficult to argue with the results thus far.  If Vodnik ends up in the rotation, and succeeds, he will suddenly find himself with many more adoring fans in the fantasy realm.

DOWNGRADE 

Jose Soriano, P, LAA – In case you hadn't heard, Soriano underwent Tommy John surgery in February, knocking him out for whatever occurs in 2020 as well as likely a good portion of the 2021 campaign as well.  Though Soriano certainly will miss less live game action than usual following such a procedure, his development will still suffer in the short term.  Soriano was coming off something of a breakout year in 2019, posting a 2.55 ERA with 84 strikeouts in 77.2 innings.  The opposition batted an anemic .197 against him at that level.  Soriano still struggled a bit with walks, though, issuing 48 free passes, and that has been the biggest detraction to his development thus far.  Tommy John surgery will not help Soriano in that regard either.  As a result, when Soriano likely returns to full health and command, it will be 2023 and he will be 23, yet have never pitched above Low-A.

Nick Pratto, 1B, KC – Let's not sugarcoat it; the 2019 campaign was ugly for Pratto.  At one time considered the top prospect in the Royals organization, Pratto struggled mightily at High-A last season, slashing an abysmal .191/.278/.310 in 124 games.  He didn't even make up for the terrible slash line with monster power numbers.  Pratto hit just nine home runs while striking out 164 times.  The 21-year-old did steal 17 bases, but that's about the only positive sign from his 2019 season, and you're not exactly looking for stolen bases from your first baseman anyway.  A first round pick in the 2017 draft, Pratto will have a long leash and will be given every chance to turn things around.  That being said, he never was projected for big power numbers and he struck out too much even before last season, so the red flags remain.

Nick Gordon, SS, MIN – How the mighty have fallen.  Once considered the top prospect for the Twins and a "can't-miss" phenom, Gordon now finds himself as a 24-year-old who has repeated Triple-A.  Gordon wasn't actually bad in his second go-round, hitting .298 and swiping 14 bags in 70 games.  That being said, he has little power, is impatient at the dish and couldn't stay healthy in 2019, battling an assortment of injuries.  The Twins had a breakout season from Luis Arraez in 2019, and top prospect Royce Lewis looks to be hot on Gordon's heels.  As a result, Gordon is blocked wherever he turns, but even if he wasn't, he might not figure into Minnesota's future plans anyway.

Hans Crouse, P, TEX – Crouse's stock took a hit last year due to a combination of injury and inconsistency.  Considered one of the more promising Texas prospects heading into the season, he scuffled with a mediocre 4.41 ERA in 87.2 innings.  He was victimized by the long ball, surrendering 12 home runs in 19 starts.  His control remained largely intact, though his strikeout figures also dipped.  It was then discovered that Crouse had a bone spur in his elbow, requiring surgery and ultimately cutting short his 2019 campaign.  It is unclear if the inconsistency and the injury were related, though Crouse does still need to add a third pitch to his fastball/slider combination.  Crouse does have the chance to rebound, but he must show he is healthy, that he can keep the ball in the ballpark, and that he can develop a third pitch in order to become a staple in the starting rotation.  That's a lot to bank on, especially considering the lack of live game action thus far in 2020.