AL FAAB Factor: Mid-May Update

Normally on Sundays, I'd be writing and posting the AL FAAB article, highlighting and analyzing players who are worth picking up (or occasionally, trying to talk you out of throwing too much of your budget at a player likely to draw high bids). However, with the MLB season held in suspended animation like a bug in amber, there are no FAAB or waiver periods to worry about. At least I hope not – there's probably a couple of leagues out there that drafted early and might be plowing ahead anyway, but spending any portion of your budget right now would just be silly, when things as fundamental as the number of games that will be played and the size of big-league rosters are still up in the air.

That doesn't mean, however, that there aren't players and roster situations worth discussing in the meantime. Each week until the season is finally ready to begin, we'll take a look at players gaining or losing value, to prepare you for that eventual first FAAB period.

Starting Pitcher

Aaron Civale / Zach Plesac / Jefry Rodriguez, Cleveland: One job battle that remained fairly up in the air when spring training was suspended was at the back of Cleveland's rotation. Even if Carlos Carrasco is healthy when things ramp up again, that still leaves openings behind the team's new Big Three of Mike Clevinger, Carrasco and Shane Bieber, although Adam Plutko was viewed as a lock since he's out of minor-league options. Officially, Rodriguez is the only one of the trio listed above who's still on the big-league roster as Plesac and Civale were both optioned to Triple-A in late March, but he had by far the worst spring performance (5:7 K:BB in 7.2 IP, versus 9:2 K:BB in 8.1 IP for Plesac and 9:2 K:BB in 5.0 IP for Civale) and that may have been more of a sign he was headed for a long relief role at best. With expanded rosters, expect all of them to get consistent work during a compacted schedule, and while Civale and Plesac both have some marginal fantasy intrigue as command guys with decent stuff, the benefit of feasting on AL Central competition could be muted by any temporary realignment plans.

Rich Hill, Twins: The 40-year-old threw only 58.2 innings last year for the Dodgers and then had October elbow surgery, but Hill appears to be on track to join the Minnesota rotation just in time for a second training camp in June or July. Having someone as fragile as Hill as one of your five starters basically ensures the Twins will need a sixth, and with the luxury of an expanded roster, it wouldn't be a surprise if Hill is limited to a low pitch count/strict batters faced total in a piggyback arrangement with someone like Randy Dobnak or Devin Smeltzer. That could be good for Hill's ratios, but bad news for the veteran's win total if he's the one getting the "starts" and only going 3-4 innings.

Relief Pitcher

Franklin Perez, Tigers: I'm listing him as a reliever, but if the Tigers do decide to include Perez on an expanded roster in order to ensure he gets work, he could be used in just about any role. Still only 22 years old, Perez's prospect status has been sabotaged by his inability to stay healthy – he has yet to toss more than 86.1 innings in a professional season, and managed to be on the mound for just 27 innings over the last two years – but his stuff and upside remain enticing if he ever puts it all together. He's sort of the AL version of Alex Reyes, only he hasn't pitched above Double-A yet. Detroit will want to make sure he gets as much work as he can handle, and it's not like the team will be gunning for a playoff spot this season, so while he's a pure deep-league lottery ticket, Perez is one of those names to stash away in the back of your head in case, by some miracle, his arm holds up and things begin to click.

Catcher

Austin Romine, Tigers: Apparently, Detroit's was so impressed with Romine's veteran presence in the clubhouse (when players were allowed to gather in a clubhouse) that they were considering keeping him around past 2020. While that still doesn't make the 31-year-old much of a dynasty target, it does have implications for his value in re-draft formats. As a rental/stopgap behind the plate, Romine would have been a candidate to get dealt to a contender looking for catching depth, which would likely have put a big dent in his playing time. If he gets inked to an extension, though, or at least is talking to the front office about one, his odds of keeping a starting job are much better, even if it's a starting job in a weak offense. Romine is also coming off career-best rate stats, and while regression is almost certain, he wouldn't be the first catcher to start putting things together offensively in his 30s. Take a look at the career path of Kurt Suzuki, for instance, or Tyler Flowers.

Second Base

Andrew Velazquez, Orioles: Last year, the O's carried Richie Martin on the roster as a Rule 5 pick, and while he wound up providing very little fantasy value he did wind up with 10 steals in 11 attempts, and there was some hope his defense at shortstop might buy him enough playing time to swipe more. This year, it looks like that "probably worthless but might fall into enough action to be a useful source of steals" spot will be filled by Velazquez. A former Tampa farmhand who got traded to Cleveland last July, he offers defensive versatility in addition to his speed, and he went 32-for-35 on the basepaths across three levels in 2018. On a roster that basically has no reliable, established starters anywhere on the diamond with Jonathan Villar and Trey Mancini out of the picture, that versatility (especially his ability to play center field) could lead to a lot of usage, in much the same way Hanser Alberto somehow got 550 PAs for Baltimore last season. Of course, Alberto also did something with his chances, but Velazquez just needs to hold his own at the plate to be able to use his wheels.

Shortstop

Ehire Adrianza, Twins: If you're really hunting for the next Hanser Alberto, though (not that I imagine that's a particularly high-demand fantasy target), Adrianza might be your best bet. Yes, the Twins are a far deeper team than the O's were in 2019, but their starting infield still has a lot of question marks. Josh Donaldson might get hurt again. Luis Arraez is unproven. Age might catch up to Nelson Cruz, pushing Miguel Sano to DH, or maybe Sano will start striking out half the time. And while that would seem to make a strong case for rostering Marwin Gonzalez as the team's top utility guy, he battled through injuries of his own last year and is coming back from offseason knee surgery. Adrianza flashed some improvement at the plate last season and owns a career .303/.385/.412 slash line at Triple-A, numbers which look an awful lot like Alberto's 2019 performance, only with more walks.

C.J. Chatham, Red Sox: Chatham is far from a top prospect – we have him 18th in the Boston system, and not in the overall top 400 – but he was added to the 40-man roster in the offseason and is a likely candidate for a bench spot on an expanded roster. A second-round pick in 2016 out of Florida Atlantic, Chatham doesn't bring much more than a solid hit tool to the table right now, but that's still enough to give him some deep-league intrigue, and his .297 batting average last year for Double-A Portland was his worst mark since rookie ball. With big-league coaching, he might also be able to add some power to his profile given his 6-3 frame. The Red Sox remain unsettled at second base, so there is even potentially a path to a starting job here, albeit a narrow one – if Michael Chavis' glove isn't up to the task, and Jose Peraza remains Jose Peraza, Chatham could be the next man up at the keystone.

Outfield

Jarred Kelenic / Julio Rodriguez, Mariners: I'm listing these two elite prospects here only to report the sad news that, even if we see expanded rosters and taxi squads and no minor-league season, neither Kelenic nor Rodriguez are expected to make their big-league debuts in 2020. Rodriguez is only 19 and has 17 games at High-A as the most advanced competition he's faced, and he simply won't be ready. In a full season, maybe he could have pulled off a Juan Soto-like rise to the majors, but that won't be on the table now. Kelenic is a year older (closer to 18 months) and made it to Double-A last year, so his debut is more plausible, but the M's have other outfield candidates to sort through first, like Jake Fraley and Kyle Lewis, and they would also face the Catch-22 situation of all expected second-division clubs – if they aren't in the race for a playoff spot, they have no incentive to start a prospect's service-time clock, but if they are unexpectedly in a race, it will likely be because the guys ahead of the prospect on the depth chart are doing really well. In short, don't waste a roster spot on either one in re-draft leagues, regardless of their pedigree and hypothetical upside.

Brett Phillips / Bubba Starling, Royals: On the other hand, if you're looking for players barely clinging to the tatters of their fading prospect status but who are guaranteed big-league jobs, have I got a couple of guys for you. The 25-year-old Phillips is one of a long line of toolsy Brewers farmhands who got traded away before their inability to make consistent contact hurt their value (see also: Lewis Brinson), but he has a good glove, can supply the occasional homer or steal, and most importantly, he's out of minor-league options. Starling is 27 and homegrown, but has much the same profile otherwise, and only his status as the fifth overall pick in the 2011 draft has kept him in the Kansas City pipeline this long. The duo won't begin the season in starting roles, but a spot could open up quickly if either Whit Merrifield or Hunter Dozier are needed on the infield. A platoon could even form between Phillips and Starling, which would favor Phillips as the lefty swinger. The team would certainly prefer it if the light bulb suddenly went off for one of them and he seized a full-time job outright. Well, ideally they'd both break out, but let's not get crazy here.