Mound Musings: The Kids on Parade 2020 Watch List

This is the column I look forward to the most every season. As regular readers are probably aware, I play almost exclusively in keeper and dynasty leagues. And, not surprisingly, there is a huge benefit in identifying and acquiring excellent pitching talent just before they arrive in the major leagues.

 The problem is, this list is actually getting more difficult to maintain. There are still plenty of young arms with high ceilings, but it seems like more and more of the blue-chippers are being called to the majors before they have had time to tip off that high upside in the minors. Colleges are doing a better job of preparing these youngsters – many believe the better programs are equivalent to Low-A, or perhaps even High-A ball – and teams are desperate to find pitchers capable of helping today.

The result has been an unprecedented rush to the major leagues, and we are left trying to sift through all those kids in an attempt to add the real impact arms, while avoiding the pretenders. And with the push for more offense, lack of minor league seasoning can be very problematic. I'll remind you the pitchers below primarily are guys who likely will arrive (if they haven't already) in the next year or two at the most. Let's get started:

Put These Guys at the Top of Your Watch List:

MacKenzie Gore (SD) – Gore has been pretty high on this list since he was drafted, but he has now reached the top spot. He tossed 101 innings between High-A and Double-A this season, compiling a 1.69 ERA with an even more impressive 0.83 WHIP (plus 135 strikeouts). Southpaws often take a bit longer to get everything together, but he has already displayed excellent command of his entire repertoire despite not turning 21 until next February. He has experienced some blister issues, but there simply aren't any holes in his game. For comparison purposes, in my opinion, he has a considerably higher ceiling than Chris Paddack (just keep in mind, he is three years younger, so his performance could take time to peak). He probably starts 2020 back at Double-A, but Triple-A and then San Diego are in the plans for next year.

Forrest Whitley (HOU) – Many analysts rank Whitley the top pitching prospect in the game today. It's hard to argue with them. He has dynamic stuff (five quality pitches including an outstanding fastball and a change that is a true difference-maker, and he is built to be a workhorse (6'7" and 240 lbs.). However, Whitley hasn't been able to fully display his talents. He was sharp over 91 innings in 2017 but was handed a 50-game suspension after testing positive for a banned substance in 2018, then missed time, first with an oblique injury and later with a lat strain. He was limited to just 26 innings that year, and he then experienced shoulder issues that affected his command this season. All these factors have slowed his progress, but hopefully he can put it all behind him and get back on track next year. He is a legitimate ace in the making.

Matt Manning (DET) – In my book, there is a bit of a gap between the top two, and this next tier of kids, however, I believe Manning could push his way into the top group. He certainly has the tools, including a lively fastball and a curve that can be devastating at times. It's the "at times" part that needed to improve. This year, I saw dramatic progress, especially later in the season when he posted a 36:4 K/BB rate over his last six starts. All told, he enjoyed a very successful age 21 season at Double-A Erie, going 11-5 with a tidy 2.56 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP while recording 148 strikeouts in 134 innings. It's the steadily improving command that is key. I feel like his more advanced pitch mix might be separating him from the Tigers' other top prospect, Casey Mize. He'll presumably move up to Triple-A next year, but if all goes well, watch for him in Detroit by midseason.

Nate Pearson (TOR) – This guy might have the best raw stuff of anyone on the list. His arm is what General Managers dream of. The Jays have him riding the express. He began 2019 at High-A Dunedin (talk about a mismatch, 10 hits and three walks with 35 strikeouts over 21 innings), stopped off at Double-A, before finishing the season at Triple-A Buffalo. When he's on the mound, it's all about his fastball. He fairly easily sits mid-upper 90s, but he can hit triple digits when he wants to, and notably, he pitches on an extremely exaggerated downward plane, which is almost unfair. He has a decent changeup and a still developing slider, so he has the potential to be a dominating starter, and, if not, he profiles as a devastating closer today. He's been one of my favorites to watch, and 2020 could be the year he takes the next big step.

Ian Anderson (ATL) – The Braves always seem to have a couple guys on this list, and it happens for a very good reason. They can spot top tier talent, and they are more patient than many other organizations in developing that talent. Last year's top Braves prospect on my kid's list was Mike Soroka. He has graduated (and had a pretty fine season in Atlanta this year). Next up is Anderson. A couple years ago many analysts had him ranked behind some of their other arms, but he is living up to my faith and may well be close to the big leagues. He probably has slightly better pure stuff than Soroka, but the Braves typically don't declare their prospects ready until they show they can consistently spot their entire repertoire and throw a quality changeup. Anderson is getting closer on both counts. He spent most of 2019 at Double-A before a late-season promotion to Triple-A Gwinnett. If he keeps moving forward Atlanta is not far off.

Jesus Luzardo (OAK) – Unlike the names listed above, Luzardo is already giving us a sneak preview of things to come pitching out of the A's bullpen this month. The early returns have been very promising, with him allowing just three hits and three walks to go with eight strikeouts over seven innings as he contributes to Oakland's playoff run. He missed a couple months with a lat strain earlier this season, but he finished up strong at Triple-A Las Vegas and is pitching long relief for the A's. He is much more polished than you might expect given his age and pro experience, so a spot in the team's rotation next spring is certainly realistic. He's still working on refining a third pitch, but his fastball and, more importantly, his changeup are major league ready right now. I think his curveball will be serviceable, which will be good enough to make him a useful starter. He's a bit of a wildcard, though. If the third pitch turns out very good, his stock will rise further.

A.J. Puk (OAK) – Now we'll drop down to the next tier of top pitching prospects. There's still a great deal to like with these guys, but there are questions to be answered, primarily as a result of injuries. Puk is big (6'7") and he's left-handed, which almost automatically makes patience a keyword. Like Luzardo, he's now up with the A's for a September look, and he's re-opening some eyes. He was rocking and rolling back in 2017 with 184 strikeouts in 125 innings across two levels. However, in April, 2018 he suffered ligament damage in his left elbow. Tommy John surgery cost him all of that season and most of this year. He has a lively upper 90s fastball, a wipeout slider, and his other pitches are pretty good, too. His contributions for next year are directly tied to him locking in a release point. You may have to endure some bumps in the road, but I really believe the payoff when he gets everything locked in will be worth it.

Michael Kopech (CWS) – Kopech and Hunter Greene (discussed below) are the two pitchers most capable of challenging Pearson with regard to having the biggest cannon in the parade. The White Sox got a brief taste of his potential back in 2018, but Tommy John surgery ended that season and cost him all of this year. There is no question, when healthy, he has the tools. My concern has been a feeling that he can be more of a thrower rather than a pitcher. Interestingly, the very same could have been said about teammate Lucas Giolito, but the Sox are certainly reaping the benefits of his new focus. That likely bodes well for Kopech. With some of the most exciting young position players in the game, the future looks very bright on the south side of Chicago, and Kopech will be counted on to contribute on the mound. They are probably another year away, and they won't want to push him too hard in 2020, but he's one to grab and stash now.

Casey Mize (DET) – The consensus is that Manning and Mize are 1a and 1b in the Tigers' future rotation projections, but I am still experiencing mild concern (at this point) regarding Mize's ultimate ceiling. Don't get me wrong. He's still on my list, and he deserves to be. I just think I'd like to see a little different pitch mix. Mize relies heavily on his splitter – not my favorite pitch – and he throws a mid-90s fastball, a cutter, a slider, and he's even added a slurve, but I don't think the soft stuff is quite as effective. He was the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft, he enjoyed a successful first season as a pro, and he even authored a no-hitter back in April at Double-A Erie. Maybe I'm setting the bar unfairly high, but I do believe a bit more consistency with his soft stuff could propel him into the top tier of pitching prospects. Let's see how it goes in 2020.

Eric Pardinho (TOR) –A year ago, Pardinho was virtually unknown. I drafted him in a couple dynasty leagues based on a few short clips I had seen of him pitching for the Brazilian team in the World Baseball Classic qualifier – at age 15. He's 18 now, and he's listed at 5'10" and 155 lbs. (both might be generous), so he's not your prototypical starting pitcher, but he has "wow" stuff given his age and experience level. Pardinho fairly easily gets his fastball into the mid-90s with movement, and I was especially impressed with his curveball. Plus, he has exceptional mound presence for what amounts to a high schooler. He pitched well in Rookie ball in 2018, and despite missing the first half of this year with some elbow issues, he slotted right in at Low-A Lansing. As he matures, if he stays healthy, he could move up fairly quickly.

Hunter Greene (CIN) – This one is all about the arm. Greene is one of the new breed of professional baseball players who can both pitch and hit. The Reds have opted to see where he can go with that flamethrower and were having him pitch exclusively, but it is all on hold for now. Greene was shut down in July 2018 when he came up with a UCL injury. It was initially deemed minor, so it wouldn't require Tommy John surgery, but a setback this spring changed the plan. He had surgery and is not expected back now until mid-2020. He's still more of a thrower than a pitcher, but when he easily can throw 102 to 104 mph, there is good reason to monitor his progress. He's likely at least a couple years away, but with his potential upside, he could be worth the wait.

There are more names that could be added to this list, and I apologize if your guy isn't here – but I want to keep the Parade as pristine and pure as possible. One notable name missing is Alex Reyes (STL). I didn't forget him, but constant injuries have seriously impacted his development. He probably remains a blue-chip prospect and deserves a spot high on your list, but he has to show he can stay on the mound. Here are a just few other honorable mentions who received consideration (in no special order) for inclusion in the 2020 Parade: Brendan McKay (TB), Simeon Woods Richardson (TOR), Dylan Cease (CWS), Sixto Sanchez (MIA), Justus Sheffield (SEA), Brent Honeywell (TB), Kyle Wright (ATL), Alek Manoah (TOR), Brady Singer (KC), Grayson Rodriguez (BAL), Deivi Garcia (NYY), and Brusdar Graterol (MIN).

That's a wrap. Always remember, the list is never static. Tomorrow, the Parade could, and probably will, change. Enjoy the offseason, following the playoffs, of course. Spring training is right around the corner!